In this paper, we simulate the economic loss resulting from supply chain disruptions triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) in 2011, applying data from firm-level supply chains and establishment-level attributes to an agent-based model. To enhance the accuracy of the simulation, we extend data and models in previous studies in four ways. First, we identify the damage to production facilities in the disaster-hit regions more accurately by using establishment-level census and survey data and geographic information system (GIS) data on the damages caused by the GEJE and subsequent tsunami. Second, the use of establishment-level data enables us to capture supply chains between non-headquarter establishments in disaster-hit regions and establishments in other regions. Third, we incorporate the effect of power outages after the GEJE on production reduction, which exacerbated the effect of the supply chain disruption, particularly in the weeks immediately after the GEJE. Finally, our model incorporates sectoral heterogeneity by employing sector-specific parameters. Our findings indicate that the extended method can significantly improve the accuracy of predicting the domestic production after the GEJE, particularly due to the first three improvements utilizing various data sources, not because of the use of more sector-specific parameters. Our method can be applied to predict the economic effect of future disasters, such as the Nankai Trough earthquake, on each region more precisely.

Construction restrictions implemented in some coastal areas of Kesennuma City, Miyagi Prefecture, after the Great East Japan Earthquake were necessary for reconstructing residences and town buildings; however, they were criticized for delaying the recovery and reconstruction of the fish processing industry that was affected by the disaster. In areas that were affected by the construction restrictions, a foundation development for the Cluster Zone (CZ) of fish processing industry facilities was implemented, and companies were only allowed to rebuild their plants more than three years later when the project was completed. In areas that became designated for a land readjustment project (LRP) several years after the disaster, plants that had been repaired were forced to relocate. The present study targeted the fish processing industry of Kesennuma City and conducted a questionnaire on companies that had their offices in the areas that were likely impacted by such policies and projects. We conducted an interview to understand the specific impact of such policies and projects on company management. Based on the above survey, we reached the following conclusions. First, many companies that had plants in the scheduled CZ, which was determined after the disaster, relocated their plants. Many companies felt that construction restrictions and the foundation development project (FDP) for the CZ delayed the recovery of plants. Second, companies that were impacted by the FDP of the CZ, LRP, etc. experienced delays in the recovery of sales channels and hiring, the dispersion of plants, increased costs due to the move, and the abandonment of some manufacturing. Third, as measures to alleviate the impact on companies of the government preparing industrial lands after large-scale disasters, we discuss measures to speed up project implementation, support for the use of production bases, and other important aspects.

南海トラフ巨大地震に代表される時間経過とともに発生リスクが増加する漸増型災害リスクに対して、災害軽減レベルを各時期で設定し、時期に応じた対策を行うことが理想的であるが、自治体、企業、住民といった地域防災のステークホルダーにおいてその計画・対策論は確立されていない。本研究では南海トラフ巨大地震の影響を受ける近畿圏において、自治体、企業、住民を対象に調査やワークショップを実施した。その結果、自治体、企業、住民いずれも長期間での対策実施には至っておらず、短中期的な対策促進と時系列評価を加味したリスクマネジメントの必要性が明らかになった。
主催：京都大学防災研究所自然災害研究協議会; 日程：令和4年9月26日（月）13時00分～17時20分; 場所：ハイブリッド開催 オンライン：Zoom 現地会場：京都大学防災研究所（宇治キャンパス）連携研究棟 大セミナー室(301)
防災研究所共同研究・地域防災実践型共同研究

Both Sendai City in Japan and Seattle-King County (hereafter referred to as "Seattle") in Washington State in the United States are in seismically active areas with high earthquake risks. An Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system has been publicly available in Japan since 2007. The ShakeAlert system on the U.S. West Coast is still being developed and was at the time of this study being rolled out to provide earthquake early warning to institutional and public users. Given the high costs, concomitant need for public funding, and protective behavior aims of EEW systems, a better understanding of how society and individuals perceive the system and how they react to alerts is crucial to maximize the benefits of EEW. In this study, we compared how Sendai and Seattle residents perceived earthquake risk and EEW effectiveness, as well as their willingness to pay (WTP) for an improved (Sendai) or newly adopted (Seattle) EEW system. Similarities in the risks of megaquakes and the differences in recent events and earthquake early warning implementation enabled us to test the extent to which associations between earthquake risk perceptions, risk preparedness, and support for government policies to reduce earthquake risks can be generalized across these contrasting conditions. We found that risk perceptions and perceived effectiveness of EEW in personal protection were significant determinants of WTP for an (improved) EEW system in both regions. However, the association of "fear" with earthquakes was a significant predictor of WTP only in the Seattle survey. One possible explanation for this is that emotional reactions to earthquakes were more varied in the Seattle sample than Sendai, likely due to the much milder earthquakes that have occurred in the Pacific Northwest of the US in recent decades than in Japan. In contrast, most Sendai respondents reported that they felt danger and fear in their recent earthquake experiences.

<p>Based on lessons learned from the Kumamoto earthquake, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) discussed a scheme for dispatching local government officials to the affected areas and established a "system for securing staff to support municipalities in the affected areas". The system was put into operation from the torrential rains of July 2018, but the process for providing on-site support has not been indicated at this time. When a disaster occurs on a scale that cannot be handled by local government resources alone, a rapid request for assistance and smooth acceptance of assistance are necessary. The purpose of this study is to develop a scale for evaluating the local government's ability to request support at the time of a disaster, and to identify common and individual differences in the disaster management process of "the General Adviser for Disaster Management" at the disaster management headquarters. A standardized disaster response process is also proposed based on the results.</p>

In recent years, the role of tourism-related workers in regional volcanic disaster prevention has increased in Japan. The coexistence of tourism with disaster mitigation is important in keeping residents and visitors safe and in protecting livelihoods. This paper analyzes responses from tourists and tourism workers on their receipt of volcanic hazard information. Awareness of this hazard is developing in the tourism industry. Information of expert such as members of the JMA and volcanologists at universities and institutes were considered more reliable sources of information than others. However, a direct access to experts’ information was not considered easy. Respondents’ recognition of the past hazards of Zao Volcano and future hazard factors were almost accurate. Some tourism-related workers hoped to obtain volcanic hazard information from the experts to provide to their customers. Many respondents had excessive expectations for predicting an eruption. A few were able to accept the uncertainties associated with volcano warnings and status reports. Experts need to provide adequate explanations of scientific evidence and the associated scientific uncertainties before society can readily accept eruption warnings. Furthermore, in an emergency, it is necessary to make available accurate information from specialized agencies and experts, and promptly provide them to tourism companies.

This paper reports results from a study of business owners carried out in 2016 in the region around Mount Zao, an active stratovolcano in Japan. In April 2015, Mount Zao experienced a period of unrest consistent with magma rising in the volcanic system. This led to alerts and public awareness campaigns, which provoked extensive media interest. This project used a survey and 12 semi-structured interviews to examine the opinions of business people on how the crisis was managed, and how it affected them. It also examined the perceptions of risk and the stories that were told about the potential eruption. Business owners who thought that an eruption would be harmful and that forecasting eruptions is difficult were more likely to be trusting. In general, respondents were very unaware of the risk from the volcano and the hazards that it could produce. The data also show that the impacts of disasters and even warning periods can cascade, much as hazards do: respondents noted that the crisis period effectively extended the time it has taken them to recover from the impact of the Tohoku earthquake in 2011, or brought them low just as they recovered. With increased vulnerability, the warning period at Zao exacerbated their situation, and this was not helped by a lack of scientific information and some perceived “rumours”. The paper suggests that public engagement via participatory strategies would be beneficial in reducing risk in this region, because it would enable stakeholders to own their risk and understand it.

Serious damages to enterprises as well as residences and infrastructure resulted from the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake. Important factories of the automobile, information technology, chemical, and other industries were located in the affected area. The nature of the damage was that there was significant damages to the building of enterprises located near the fault that caused the strong Earthquake. The geographical scope of damage to the enterprises was not very wide. The authors performed continuous research on the public announcements posted on the websites of the affected enterprises for several months, following up with news reports on damaged enterprises and on-site interviews. We found that a considerable number of enterprises supplied their products to their important customers from substitute sites to achieve their business continuity. On the other hand, many enterprises attained early on-the-spot recovery, which might be explained partly by the fact that recovery of essential utilities, particularly electricity and telecommunications, was relatively quick. The authors found many examples of effective utilization of the lessons learned from the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE). For example, some enterprises adopted the substitution strategy of business continuity management (BCM) that fulfills the responsibility to maintain supplies to the customers. Other enterprises that had experienced the GEJE avoided serious direct damage by having installed adequate earthquake countermeasures to their buildings and facilities.

Estimating electric power supply restrictions after the Nankai Trough earthquake and evaluating the need for reinforcing the capacity of lines interconnecting power supply areas, we found that capacity reinforcement of the Chubu-Kansai interconnection line used an electricity supply capability in the 60 Hz area of the western part of Japan after the disaster. We also found that this is effective in reducing risk in electric power supply restrictions, based on certain conditions. We also found by estimating construction and maintenance costs that the capacity reinforcement of the Chubu-Kansai interconnection line reduces risk and costs less than an east-west interconnection line.

Cellular automaton simulation was performed for a study case in which fire occurs at Umeda underground arcade in Osaka city. In the simulation, pedestrian behavior was divided into 5 types, namely, normal, subordinate, slow, panic and needing assistance. In addition simulation parameters, such as, pedestrian viewpoint, evacuation behavior, objective, simulation time step and diffusion of smoke, were modeled. The aim of the present study is to define the risk factors during evacuation, and to propose the key factors concerning safety performance when designing underground malls under similar conditions as that of Umeda underground arcade. To define the ranks calculated reliability of evacuation is tried. Then, the performance matrix with reliability of evacuation by the simulation is applied at. In this study, the time slot in which evacuation is dangerous in case of fire was made clear together with studies carried out on the effects of the sign position on the reliability of evacuation in case smoke descends from the ceiling. In addition, the influence of the density of underground shopping malls pillars on the evacuation reliability was verified. © 2012 The Society of Materials Science, Japan.