Updated on 2024/12/07

写真a

 
SHINO, Junnosuke
 
Affiliation
Faculty of International Research and Education, School of International Liberal Studies
Job title
Associate Professor
Degree
Ph.D. in Economics

Research Experience

  • 2020.04
    -
     

    Waseda University   School of International Liberal Studies   Associate Professor

  • 2018.04
    -
    2020.03

    Waseda University   School of International Liberal Studies   Assistant Professor

  • 2016.04
    -
    2018.03

    Waseda University   School of Political Science and Economics   Part-time Lecturer

  • 2003.04
    -
    2018.03

    Bank of Japan   Research and Statistics Department, Monetary Affairs Department, Financial Market Department, Financial System and Bank Examination Department   Director, Senior Economist

Education Background

  • 2007.09
    -
    2011.10

    The State University of New Jersey, Rutgers   Department of Economics  

  • 2001.04
    -
    2003.03

    Tokyo Institute of Technology   Graduate school of Decision Science and Technology  

  • 1997.04
    -
    2001.03

    Waseda University   School of Political Science and Economics  

Committee Memberships

  • 2024.07
    -
    Now

    Japan Securities Dealers Association  JSDA Capital Market Forum

  • 2022.06
    -
    Now

    Ministry of Finance, Japan  国の債務管理に関する研究会

Professional Memberships

  •  
    -
    Now

    Econometric Society

  •  
    -
    Now

    The Operations Research Society of Japan

  •  
    -
    Now

    Nippon Finance Association

  •  
    -
    Now

    Japanese Economic Association

  •  
    -
    Now

    Japan Society of Monetary Economics

Research Areas

  • Money and finance

Research Interests

  • Banking & finance, Cooperative game theory

Awards

  • Research Encouragement Paper for Young Scholars

    2022.07   Nippon Finance Association  

    Winner: Junnosuke Shino, Mitsuru Katagiri, Koji Takahashi

  • Sidney I. Simon Prize for Outstanding Second Year Research Paper

    2010  

    Winner: Junnosuke Shino

Media Coverage

 

Papers

  • An Axiomatization of the Shapley Mapping Using Strong Monotonicity in Interval Games

    Shinichi Ishihara, Junnosuke Shino

    Annals of Operations Research    2024.09  [Refereed]  [International journal]

    Authorship:Corresponding author

     View Summary

    Interval games are an extension of cooperative coalitional games in which players are assumed to face payoff uncertainty. Characteristic functions thus assign a closed interval instead of a real number. In this paper, we focus on interval game versions of Shapley values. First, we modify Young’s strong monotonicity axiom for coalitional games into two versions so that they can be applied to the Shapley mapping and show that this can be axiomatized within the entire class of interval games using either version. Second, we derive the Shapley mapping for specific examples by employing two approaches used in the proof of the axiomatization and argue that our approach effectively works for a wide range of interval games.

    DOI

  • Alternative Methods to SHAP Derived from Properties of Kernels: A Note on Theoretical Analysis

    Kazuhiro Hiraki, Shinichi Ishihara, Junnosuke Shino

       2024.06

     View Summary

    This study first derives a general and analytical expression of AFA (Additive Feature Attribution) in terms of the kernel in LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations). Then, we propose some new AFAs that have appropriate properties of kernels or that coincide with the LS prenucleolus in cooperative game theory. We also revisit existing AFAs such as SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) and re-examine the properties of their kernels.

  • To lend or not to lend: the Bank of Japan's ETF purchase program and securities lending

    Mitsuru Katagiri, Junnosuke Shino, Koji Takahashi

    BIS Working Papers   ( No 1113 )  2023.08

     View Summary

    This study investigates the effects of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) exchange-traded fund (ETF) purchase program on stock returns, particularly focusing on the role of the stock lending market. Using firm-level panel data, we find that the BOJ's purchases raised stock returns more for those stocks with limited availability in the stock lending market. Nonetheless, over the longer term, the BOJ's accumulated purchases lowered lending fees and weakened the effects of their purchases on stock returns. This result suggests that ETF managers supply stocks that constitute ETFs held by the BOJ to the stock lending market, which weakens the policy effects of the program.

  • Some Properties of Interval Shapley Values: An Axiomatic Analysis

    Shinichi Ishihara, Junnosuke Shino

    Games   14 ( 3 ) 50 - 50  2023.06  [Refereed]  [International journal]

    Authorship:Corresponding author

     View Summary

    Interval games are an extension of cooperative coalitional games, in which players are assumed to face payoff uncertainty. Characteristic functions thus assign a closed interval instead of a real number. This study revisits two interval game versions of Shapley values (i.e., the interval Shapley value and the interval Shapley-like value) and characterizes them using an axiomatic approach. For the interval Shapley value, we show that the existing axiomatization can be generalized to a wider subclass of interval games called size monotonic games. For the interval Shapley-like value, we show that a standard axiomatization using Young’s strong monotonicity holds on the whole class of interval games.

    DOI

  • Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Bank Lending

    Koji Takahashi, Junnosuke Shino

    BIS Working Papers   No 1078  2023.03  [International journal]

     View Summary

    This paper investigates the effect of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of firms on bank loans using bank–firm matched data of Japanese listed firms from 2006 to 2018. Previous findings suggest that climate risks priced in corporate bonds or syndicated loans are statistically significant but economically minor. This paper investigates bank lending behavior in terms of the loan amount, which we consider to have a more direct effect on firm investment decisions. This paper finds that banks significantly decrease loans to firms with higher GHG emissions. Moreover, this GHG emissions effect appears to have prevailed even before the signing of the Paris Agreement, which the existing literature considers as the starting point where GHG emissions are incorporated in the pricing of debt instruments as credit risk. Finally, banks with greater leverage and a lower return on assets are more likely to decrease loans to firms with high GHG emissions.

  • The announcement effects of a change in the Bank of Japan’s ETF purchase program: An event study

    Mitsuru Katagiri, Junnosuke Shino, Koji Takahashi

    Finance Research Letters   50   103230 - 103230  2022.12  [Refereed]  [International journal]

    Authorship:Corresponding author

     View Summary

    This study investigates the announcement effects of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) ETF purchase program on equity prices, focusing on the policy change made on March 19, 2021 when the BOJ announced that it would no longer purchase Nikkei225-tracking and JPX400-tracking ETFs but would purchase more TOPIX-tracking ETFs. A regression of intraday stock returns revealed that the announcement of a future decrease (increase) in the amount of BOJ purchases has the instantaneous effect of decreasing (increasing) stock prices.

    DOI

  • Shapley Mapping and Its Axiomatizations in n-Person Cooperative Interval Games

    Junnosuke Shino, Shinichi Ishihara, Shimpei Yamauchi

    Mathematics   10 ( 21 ) 3963 - 3963  2022.10  [Refereed]  [International journal]

    Authorship:Lead author, Corresponding author

     View Summary

    Interval games are an extension of cooperative coalitional games, in which players are assumed to face payoff uncertainty. Characteristic functions thus assign a closed interval, instead of a real number. In this paper, we first examine the notion of solution mapping, a solution concept applied to interval games, by comparing it with the existing solution concept called the interval solution concept. Then, we define a Shapley mapping as a specific form of the solution mapping. Finally, it is shown that the Shapley mapping can be characterized by two different axiomatizations, both of which employ interval game versions of standard axioms used in the traditional cooperative game analysis such as efficiency, symmetry, null player property, additivity and separability.

    DOI

  • Counteracting large-scale asset purchase program: The Bank of Japan’s ETF purchases and securities lending

    Kou Maeda, Junnosuke Shino, Koji Takahashi

    Economic Analysis and Policy   75   563 - 576  2022.09  [Refereed]  [International journal]

    Authorship:Corresponding author

     View Summary

    This study investigates the impact of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) exchange traded fund (ETF) purchasing program on the stock lending market. In particular, we focus on the fact that stocks held by ETF managers for the BOJ are lendable to other investors in order for them to make a short position in stock market. Using individual stock level data, we show that expansions of the ETF purchase program have substantially increased the supply of stocks in the lending market by changing the behavior of stock holders as the BOJ is expected to be a “buy-and-hold” type of investor. This result implies that such an active stock lending market would help to reduce the side-effects of the ETF program whereas the squeezing effect of the program on supply–demand balance in spot stock markets is mitigated.

    DOI

  • Bank of Japan's ETF purchase program and equity risk premium: a CAPM interpretation

    Mitsuru Katagiri, Koji Takahashi, Junnosuke Shino

    BIS Working Papers   ( No 1029 )  2022.07  [International journal]

     View Summary

    In this paper, we investigate the effects of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) exchange-traded fund (ETF) purchase program on equity risk premia. We first construct a unique panel dataset for the amount of individual stock that the BOJ has indirectly purchased in the program. Then, utilizing the cross-sectional and time-series variations in purchases associated with the BOJ's policy changes, the empirical analysis reveals that: (i) the BOJ's ETF purchases instantaneously support stock prices on the days of purchases, and (ii) the instantaneous positive effects on stock prices, combined with the countercyclical nature of the BOJ's purchases, have decreased the market beta and coskewness of Japanese stocks, thus leading to an economically significant decline in risk premia.

  • A SOLUTION MAPPING AND ITS AXIOMATIZATION IN TWO-PERSON INTERVAL GAMES

    Shinichi Ishihara, Junnosuke Shino

    Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan   64 ( 4 ) 214 - 226  2021.10  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Corresponding author

     View Summary

    An interval game is an extension of characteristic function form games in which players are assumed to face payoff uncertainty. The characteristic function thus assigns a closed interval, instead of a real number. In this paper, we propose a new solution mapping of two-person interval games and three different axiomatizations of the solution mapping are provided.

    DOI

  • Vulnerability of fixed-rate funds-supplying operations to overbidding: An experimental approach

    Yukihiko Funaki, Junnosuke Shino, Nobuyuki Uto

    Global Finance Journal   46   100489 - 100489  2020.11  [Refereed]  [International journal]

    Authorship:Corresponding author

     View Summary

    While the European Central Bank experienced severe overbidding in the conduct of its fixed-rate operations, the Bank of Japan has not. Theoretical analyses argue that the reason is that the currently accommodative financial environment in Japan has made bidders' objective functions locally satiated. We conduct an experiment with fixed-rate operations and find that, even as participants' initial demands are large, an explosion of bids does not arise if the objective functions are sufficiently satiated. We also estimate the bid functions from the experimental data and a simple calibration based on the functions indicates that fixed-rate operations are vulnerable to overbidding even when some degree of satiation is preserved.

    DOI

  • Interval Games and Solution Concepts

    Shinichi ISHIHARA, Junnosuke SHINO, Shinpei YAMAUCHI

    Waseda Global Forum, 16, 51-70    2020.03  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Corresponding author

  • Effects of the Negative Interest Rate Policy on Bids in Fixed-Rate Operations

    Junnosuke Shino

    Waseda Global Forum   15   57 - 80  2019.03  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Lead author, Corresponding author

  • Retailer Market Concentration, Buyer-Size Discounts and Inflation Dynamics

    Mayumi Ojima, Junnosuke Shino, Kozo Ueda

    The Japanese Economic Review   69 ( 1 ) 101 - 127  2018.03  [Refereed]

    DOI

  • Behavioral characteristics affecting household portfolio selection in Japan

    Mizuki Nakajo, Junnosuke Shino, Kei Imakubo

    Bank of Japan Review Series    2017.05

  • A New Trend in Japan's Asset Management Business toward a Sift from Saving to Investment

    Kae Kunishima, Junnosuke Shino, Kei Imakubo

    Bank of Japan Review Series    2016.09

  • A global game analysis of the LLR: the role of creditors' behaviour and penalty rate lending

    Junnosuke Shino

    International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance   8 ( 4 ) 398 - 398  2015  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Lead author, Corresponding author

    DOI

  • Some Characteristics of Employment and Income Situations under the Current Recovery in Japan

    Kenji Suganuma, Junnosuke Shino, Makoto Minegishi, Rieko Takada

    Bank of Japan Review Series    2014.06

  • A positive theory of fixed-rate funds-supplying operations in an accommodative financial environment

    Junnosuke Shino

    JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE   32   595 - 610  2013.02  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Lead author, Corresponding author

     View Summary

    This paper studies bidding behaviors in fixed-rate funds-supplying auctions using a simple game-theoretic model. While the existing literature argues that such auction schemes are vulnerable to the overbidding problem, the bid-to-cover ratio for the Bank of Japan's current fixed-rate operations has remained stable. After reviewing the stylized repo game and the mechanism of overbidding under the fixed-rate operations, we argue that the current framework of fixed-rate funds-supplying auctions operated by the Bank of Japan and the recent accommodative financial environment make bidders' loss functions locally satiated. Given this argument, it is shown that any stable bid-to-cover ratios other than either undersubscription or overbidding can be supported by an equilibrium. Finally, we empirically find that the ratio under the Bank of Japan operations has been influenced by such financial conditions proxied by market interest rates and term spreads. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

    DOI

  • 2x2 Delegation Games With Implementability In Weakly Undominated SPNE

    Junnosuke Shino

    Rutgers Working Paper   ( 2 )  2012

  • Farsighted stable sets in Hotelling's location games

    Junnosuke Shino, Ryo Kawasaki

    MATHEMATICAL SOCIAL SCIENCES   63 ( 1 ) 23 - 30  2012.01  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Lead author, Corresponding author

     View Summary

    We apply the farsighted stable set to two versions of Hotelling's location games: one with a linear market and another with a circular market. It is shown that there always exists a farsighted stable set in both games, which consists of location profiles that yield equal payoff to all players. This stable set contains location profiles that reflect minimum differentiation as well as those profiles that reflect local monopoly. These results are in contrast to those obtained in the literature that use some variant of Nash equilibrium. While this stable set is unique when the number of players is two, uniqueness no longer holds for both models when the number of players is at least three. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    DOI

  • Stock Prices and Investment trends by investor category

    FInancial Market Department, Bank of Japan

    Bank of Japan Research Papers    2011.09

  • The Relationship between the Corporate Bond Spreads, CDS Premiums, and Stock Prices

    Junnosuke Shino

    Bank of Japan Review Series    2010.09

  • Expansion of Sovereign CDS markets

    Junnosuke Shino

    Kinyu-Zaisei Jijou    2010.07

  • Sovereign Credit Default Swaps: Market Developments and Factors behind Price Changes

    Koji Takahashi, Junnosuke Shino

    Bank of Japan Review Series    2010.04

  • New Forms of Employment in Japan --On the Increasing Influence of Part-time, Dispatched, and Contracted Workers--

    Junnosuke Shino, Shin Nakahara

    Bank of Japan Review Series    2003.04

  • Standards of Behavior and Stability

    Junnosuke Shino

     

  • Essays on Game Theory and Coordination Problems

    Junnosuke Shino

     

  • Bertrand Delegation Games With Implementability In Weakly Undominated SPNE

    Junnosuke Shino

    Rutgers Working Paper 2012_No3.   ( 3 )

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Books and Other Publications

Presentations

  • 日本ファイナンス学会

    篠潤之介

    第6回秋季研究大会 

    Presentation date: 2024.11

  • 日本銀行金融研究所ファイナンスワークショップ

    篠潤之介 (Discussant)

    気候ファイナンス研究の進展 

    Presentation date: 2024.11

  • Japan Society of Monetary Economics

    Junnosuke Shino

    2023 Fall Meeting  Kyushu University

    Presentation date: 2023.09

  • Econometric Society

    Junnosuke Shino

    2023 European Summer Meeting 

    Presentation date: 2023.08

  • Japan Economic Association (Discussant)

    Nanzan University (online)

    Presentation date: 2023.05

  • Japan Financial Association (Discussant)

    Waseda University

    Presentation date: 2023.05

  • Waseda Univ. PJIR continuous workshop

    Presentation date: 2023.01

  • Osaka University

    Junnosuke SHINO

    Presentation date: 2022.12

  • 日本ファイナンス学会

    第4回秋季大会 

    Presentation date: 2022.11

  • 一橋大学

    金融研究会 

    Presentation date: 2022.10

  • Japan Securities Research Institute

     [Invited]

    Presentation date: 2022.08

  • Econometric Society

    Junnosuke SHINO

    Presentation date: 2022.08

  • Japan Financial Association

    Junnosuke SHINO

    30th Anniversary Annual Conference 

    Presentation date: 2022.06

  • Japan Society of Monetary Economics

    Junnosuke SHINO

    Presentation date: 2022.05

  • Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)

    SHINO Junnosuke

    Presentation date: 2021.07

  • The Operations Research Society of Japan

    SHINO Junnosuke

    Presentation date: 2021.03

  • Game Theory and Experimental Economics Seminar

    Waseda Institute of Political Economy

    Presentation date: 2020.11

  • The 26th Decentralization Conference in Japan

    Presentation date: 2020.10

  • Seminar at Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan

    Junnosuke SHINO

    Bank of Japan

    Presentation date: 2020.02

  • Monetary Economics Seminar of Kobe University

    Junnosuke SHINO

    Kobe University

    Presentation date: 2019.11

  • Vietnam Syimposium in Banking and Finance

    Junnosuke SHINO

    Presentation date: 2019.10

  • The 2nd Keio-Waseda Macro Workshop

    Junnosuke SHINO

    Keio University

    Presentation date: 2019.09

  • Citigroup Global Markets Japan

    Junnosuke SHINO  [Invited]

    Presentation date: 2019.09

  • Stock Lending Market and the BOJ's ETF Purchasing Program

    Korea Money & Finance Association  (Busan, Korea) 

    Presentation date: 2019.06

  • Japan's Economy and Political Learning from Policy Makers in Tokyo

    Jica ABE Initiative, Asia Pacific Leads Program  (JICA Tokyo Center)  International University of Japan

    Presentation date: 2019.06

  • Stock Lending Market and the BOJ’s ETF Purchasing Program: Micro-data Analysis

    Waseda Organizational & Financial Economics Seminar  Research Institute of Business Administration

    Presentation date: 2019.06

  • Stock Lending Market and the BOJ's ETF Purchasing Program

    Japan Society of Monetary Economics, Spring annual meeting 

    Presentation date: 2019.05

  • Vulnerability of Fixed-Rate Funds-Supplying Operations to Overbidding: an Experimental Approach

    Junnosuke Shino

    The 3rd East Asia Game Theory (EAGT) International Conference 2019  (Fuzhou, Fujian, China) 

    Presentation date: 2019.03

  • The effects of the BOJ's ETF purchasing on stock lending markets:

    Waseda Game Theory and Experimental Economics Workshop 

    Presentation date: 2019.01

  • Experiments of Fixed-Rate Funds-Supplying Auctions

    Junnosuke Shino

    Experimental and Behavioral Analyses in Macroeconomics and Finance  (Amsterdam)  Amsterdam School or Economics

    Presentation date: 2018.08

  • Asset Management Industry as Stockholder: Signalling-Game Analysis

    Junnosuke Shino

    Game Theory and Experimental Economics Workshop  (Tokyo)  Waseda University

    Presentation date: 2017.01

  • Monetary Policy, Central Banks' Assessment on Economic Activity and Prices and Game-theoretic Analysis

    Junnosuke Shino

    Game Theory and Behavioral Economics Workshop  (Tokyo)  Waseda University

    Presentation date: 2015.01

  • Lender of Last Resort Policy in a Global Game and the Role of Depositors' Aggregate Behavior as Signaling

    Junnosuke Shino

    Game Theory Workshop 2011  (Nagoya)  Nagoya University

    Presentation date: 2011.03

  • Lender of Last Resort Policy in a Global Game and the Role of Depositors' Aggregate Behavior as Signaling

    Junnosuke Shino

    6th Pan-Pacific Conference on Game Theory  (Tokyo)  Tokyo Institute of Technology

    Presentation date: 2011.02

  • Bank of Japan's Auctions during the Financial Crisis

    Junnosuke Shino

    Auctions Conducted by Central Banks during the Crisis  (New York)  NY Fed

    Presentation date: 2010.11

  • Sovereign CDS premiums and recent developments in the international and domestic financial markets

    Junnosuke Shino

    Financial facsimile Seminar  (Tokyo)  Financial facsimile news

    Presentation date: 2010.10

  • Farsighted Stable Sets in Hotelling's Location Game

    Waseda Getsu-Kin Seminar 

    Presentation date: 2010.01

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Research Projects

  • 本邦株式市場における近年の市場構造と投資家行動の変化:金融面の各種施策の影響

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業

    Project Year :

    2022.04
    -
    2025.03
     

    篠 潤之介

  • Recent changes in pattern for stockholdings of foreign investors and its effects on firm performances

    Nomura Foundation 

    Project Year :

    2022.04
    -
    2023.09
     

    Junnosuke SHINO, Hideaki MIYAJIMA

  • The effects of the index-tracking ETF purchase program

    Japan Securities Scholarship Foundation 

    Project Year :

    2021.06
    -
    2022.07
     

    SHINO Junnosuke, KATAGIRI Mitsuru

  • 近年の金融面の各種施策を受けた金融市場の構造変化:理論・実証・実験アプローチ

    Project Year :

    2019.04
    -
    2022.03
     

     View Summary

    本研究では、近年の政府による金融面での各種施策(スチュワードシップ・コードやコーポレートガバナンス・コードの策定など)や日本銀行の緩和的な金融政策(各種資産の買入れなど)が、本邦金融市場の市場構造や投資家行動にいかなる影響を及ぼしたのかについて、(1)理論、(2)実証、(3)実験の3アプローチを複合的に用いた分析を実行し、政策的な含意を導出する。2019年度の主な実績は以下の通り。・「固定金利資金供給オペレーションにおける投資家行動と安定性に関する実験研究」については、すでに実施した実験結果や、国際会議でのディスカッションをベースに、ワーキングペーパーの形で公表した。その後、学術雑誌への掲載が承認された。・「スチュワードシップ・コード(SC)およびコーポレートガバナンス・コード(CGC)策定に伴う本邦株式市場の構造変化」については、まず、既存研究のサーベイとデータの整備を行った。次に、海外投資家持ち株比率のパネル推計等の分析を行い、共同研究者との議論を深めた。・「日本銀行の資産(ETF)買入れが本邦株式貸借市場に与える影響」については、すでに作成したワーキングペーパーを、国内外のカンファレンスやワークショップ、あるいは民間金融機関の勉強会で発表した。また、そこでのディスカッションやコメントを基に、論文をリバイスし、学術雑誌へ投稿した。固定金利オペについては、実験結果をスムーズにまとめられたことから、当初予定対比早く雑誌掲載が決まった。本邦株式の構造変化については、固定オペ論文のリバイスに集中的に取り組んだことなどから、幾分遅れている。日本銀行の資産(ETF)買入れが本邦株式貸借市場に与える影響については、概ね予定通りのペースで進捗している。「固定金利資金供給オペレーションにおける投資家行動と安定性に関する実験研究」についてはひとまず雑誌掲載まで完了したので、今後は「スチュワードシップ・コード(SC)およびコーポレートガバナンス・コード(CGC)策定に伴う本邦株式市場の構造変化」と「日本銀行の資産(ETF)買入れが本邦株式貸借市場に与える影響」に集中的に取り組んでいく

  • 金融面の各種施策と緩和的金融環境がもたらした近年の投資家行動の構造変化

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業

    Project Year :

    2018.08
    -
    2020.03
     

    篠 潤之介

     View Summary

    2019年度の主な実績は以下の通り。・「固定金利資金供給オペレーションにおける投資家行動と安定性に関する実験研究」については、すでに実施した実験結果や、国際会議でのディスカッションをベースに、ワーキングペーパーの形で公表した。その後、学術雑誌への掲載が承認された。・「スチュワードシップ・コード(SC)およびコーポレートガバナンス・コード(CGC)策定に伴う本邦株式市場の構造変化」については、まず、既存研究のサーベイとデータの整備を行った。次に、海外投資家持ち株比率のパネル推計等の分析を行い、共同研究者との議論を深めた。・「日本銀行の資産(ETF)買入れが本邦株式貸借市場に与える影響」については、すでに作成したワーキングペーパーを、国内外のカンファレンスやワークショップ、あるいは民間金融機関の勉強会で発表した。また、そこでのディスカッションやコメントを基に、論文をリバイスし、学術雑誌へ投稿した。平成30年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。平成30年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない

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Misc

  • Identifying the security lending channel in a central bank’s asset purchase program: a case of Bank of Japan’s ETF purchases

    Mitsuru KatagiriJunnosuke, ShinoKoji Takahashi

    SUERF Policy Brief   691  2023.10

     View Summary

    The Bank of Japan’s ETF purchase program can influence stock returns via two different channels: direct channel and security lending channel. Direct channel simply means that, in general, BOJ’s purchases have effects of raising stock returns by tightening supply-demand conditions in the stock spot market. Security lending channel, on the other hand, works with interconnectedness between the stock market and the stock lending market: Over the longer term, the accumulated ETFs purchased by the bank can contribute to increasing the supply of lendable stocks in the lending market, lowering lending fees and eventually exerting downward pressure on stock returns. This security lending channel should be taken into account in evaluating the effect of the asset purchase program on asset prices, especially when the target asset can be lent out in the lending market.

  • Boosting the Green Transition: Greenhouse gas emissions and bank lending

    Koji Takahashi, Junnosuke Shino

    SUERF Policy Brief   597  2023.06

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    We investigate the effect of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of firms on bank loans using bank--firm matched data of Japanese listed firms. Previous findings suggest that climate risks priced in corporate bonds or syndicated loans are statistically significant but economically minor. We uncover bank lending behavior in terms of the loan amount, i.e., quantity of credit, considered to have a more direct effect on firm investment decisions. We show that banks significantly decrease loans to firms with higher GHG emissions. In addition, we find that banks with greater leverage and a lower return on assets are more likely to decrease loans to firms with high GHG emissions.

  • Recent Discussions on the Rules of JBG Redemptions and Yield Curve Control

    SHINO Junnosuke

      809  2023.04

 

Sub-affiliation

  • Faculty of Political Science and Economics   School of Political Science and Economics

  • Faculty of International Research and Education   Graduate School of International Culture and Communication Studies

Research Institute

  • 2023
    -
    2024

    Center for Data Science   Concurrent Researcher

Internal Special Research Projects

  • 本邦金融市場の機能・構造についての理論・応用・実証分析

    2023  

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    本研究では、これまで継続してきた本邦金融市場の機能・構造についての理論・応用・実証分析を引き続き進めた。期初に挙げた研究テーマ別の成果は以下の通り。・CAPMを用いた日本銀行のETF買入れ政策の効果の識別:アカデミック・ジャーナルへ投稿した(現在査読中)。・日本銀行のETF買入政策が貸株市場および株価リターンに与える影響:BISからワーキングペーパーを公表、さらにアカデミック・ジャーナルへ投稿した(現在査読中)。また、関連するポリシー・レビューを対外公表した。・投資家のエンゲージメント活動についての理論・実証分析:実証ペーパーのドラフトを作成した。・本邦貸出市場における銀行貸出と貸出先の温室効果ガス排出の関係についての実証分析:ポリシー・レビューを対外公表した。・シャープレイ値型解概念の実社会への適用可能性(区間ゲームにおけるシャープレイ値型解概念の応用、SHAPを用いた機械学習モデル予測の要因分解に関する理論・実証分析):アカデミック・ジャーナルへ論文を公表したほか、機械学習に関する研究をスタートさせた。

  • 不確実性を考慮した協力ゲームの理論・応用分析

    2022  

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    本研究では、1点目に、協力ゲーム理論への不確実性の導入として、これまで進めてきた区間ゲームの理論的な分析をベースに、既存の解の新たな公理化などを行った。2022年度においては、1本の英語論文を学術誌に公表、また1本のWPを公表した。 2点目は、機械学習モデル予測の要因分解に関する協力ゲームの解概念を用いた分析に着手した。この分野においては、近年、シャープレイ値を用いたSHAPという手法が一般的となっている。2022年度においては、SHAPの代替的、かついくつかの点において優れているとみなすことのできる手法を導き、その理論的な正当化(公理化など)を行った。

  • 近年の金融面の各種施策を受けた金融市場の構造変化:理論・実証アプローチ

    2021  

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    本研究では、近年の本邦資本市場において、金融面での各種施策や緩和的な金融政策が、市場構造や投資家行動にいかなる影響を及ぼしたのかについて、理論・実証分析を進め、政策的な含意の導出を試みた。特に、今年度は、(1)日本銀行のETF買入れの効果について、これまで進めてきた①貸株市場との関係についての分析のほか、新たに②CAPMを用いた分析、および③政策変更日のイベント分析、を行い、いずれも一定程度進捗した。また、(2)海外機関投資家の株式保有パターンの変容についても、実証分析を進め、ペーパーとしての形が整った。さらに、(3)より基礎的な研究として、昨年に引き続き協力ゲーム(区間ゲーム)の理論的性質についての分析を進め、論文を作成した。最後に、(4)銀行貸出と企業のCarbon Emissionについての分析を行うべく、準備段階のリサーチに着手した。

  • 近年の金融面の各種施策を受けた金融市場の構造変化:理論・実証・実験アプローチ

    2020  

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    本研究では、我が国の金融面での各種施策や緩和的な金融政策が、金融市場の構造や投資家行動にいかなる影響を及ぼしたのかについて、理論・実証分析を進め、政策的な含意の導出を試みた。特に、(1)日本銀行のETF買入れ政策と株式貸借市場の取引拡大や取引行動の変化の間に、因果関係は存在するか、(2)本邦企業の長期的な企業価値向上を企図して近年策定されたスチュワードシップ・コードやコーポレートガバナンス・コードの機能を理論的にどう捉え、また、これらのコードが本邦株式市場の投資家行動(特に海外投資家の株式保有パターン)にいかなる変化をもたらしたのか、について、引き続き分析を進めた。また、(3)日本銀行の資金供給オペレーションに関する実験論文が学術雑誌に掲載された。さらに、本年度は、より基礎的な研究として、(4)協力ゲーム(区間ゲーム)の理論的性質についての分析を進め、論文を作成した。

  • 近年の金融面の各種施策を受けた金融市場の構造変化:理論・実証・実験アプローチ

    2019  

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    本研究では、近年の金融面での各種施策や日本銀行の緩和的な金融政策が、本邦金融市場の構造や投資家行動にいかなる影響を及ぼしたのかについて分析を行い、政策的な含意を導出した。特に、近年の緩和的な金融環境が、これまで構造的な不安定性を指摘されてきた<固定金利方式の資金供給オペレーションにおける投資家の入札行動>が、これまでのところ安定的に推移していることに対し、どの程度プラスの影響をもたらしてきたのか、について実験分析を行い、理論分析との関連を考察した。

  • 近年の金融面の各種施策を受けた金融市場の構造変化:理論・実証・実験アプローチ

    2019  

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    本研究では、近年の金融面での各種施策や日本銀行の緩和的な金融政策が、本邦金融市場の構造や投資家行動にいかなる影響を及ぼしたのかについて、理論・実証分析を行い、政策的な含意を導出した。特に、(1)日本銀行のETF買入れ政策と株式貸借市場の取引拡大の間に、因果関係は存在するか、(2)本邦企業の長期的な企業価値向上を企図して近年策定されたスチュワードシップ・コードやコーポレートガバナンス・コードの機能を理論的にどう捉え、また、これらのコードが本邦株式市場の投資家行動(特に海外投資家の株式保有パターン)にいかなる変化をもたらしたのか、について分析を行った。

  • 近年の本邦金融市場の構造変化:海外ショック波及の規模拡大とその経路

    2018  

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    We in this project identify structural changes in spill-over mechanism through which overseas shocks affect domestic financial market or financial system. Particularly, we focus on Japanese and Canadian banks having been engaged in overseas business and construct Bayesian structural VAR models to identify which of the following mostly influences stock return of Japanese or Canadian banking sector: (i) overseas (= U.S.) yield shock, (ii) domestic yield shock, or (iii) exchange rate shock. Estimation results suggest that in recent years stock prices of the banking sector in these countries tend to be more vulnerable by U.S. yield shocks rather than domestic yields (proxies for domestic banking business) or exchange rate (proxies for corporate profits), both of which have been traditionally taken as major determinants of bank equity price before the great financial crisis. The result is consistent with recent efforts of Japanese and Canadian banking sector to expand their business in overseas markets such as the U.S. and suggests potential risk of vulnerabilities in the global financial system.

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