Updated on 2024/06/15

写真a

 
SHIMOKAWA, Satoru
 
Affiliation
Faculty of Political Science and Economics, School of Political Science and Economics
Job title
Associate Professor
Degree
博士

Research Experience

  • 2016.04
    -
    Now

    Waseda University,   School of Political Science and Economics,   Associate Professor

  • 2015.07
    -
    2016.03

    The Institute of Developing Economies,   Research Fellow

  • 2007.07
    -
    2015.06

    Hong Kong University of Science &Technology,   Division of Social Science,   Assistant Professor

Education Background

  •  
    -
    2007

    Cornell University,   Applied Economics and Management,   Ph.D.  

  •  
    -
    2003

    Cornell University,   Applied Economics and Management,   M.S.  

  •  
    -
    2000

    Hokkaido University,   Agricultural Economics,   B.S.  

Committee Memberships

  • 2021.11
    -
    Now

    Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association  Area Editor

  • 2019.04
    -
    Now

    Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics  Editorial Board

  • 2016.07
    -
    2022.06

    Food Policy  Associate Editor

  • 2011.01
    -
    2013.12

    Food Policy  Associate Editor (Editor-in-Chief in 2013)

  • 2020.08
    -
    Now

    Agricultural and Resource Economics Review  Editorial Board

  • 2017.08
    -
    Now

    Journal of Integrative Agriculture  Editorial Board

  • 2022.01
    -
    2023.03

    Asian Society of Agricultural Economists  Vice-chair of local organizing committee

  • 2017.04
    -
    2019.03

    Editorial Board

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Research Areas

  • Agricultural and food economics

Research Interests

  • Agricultural Economics

  • Development Economics

  • Food Policy

 

Papers

  • Local restrictions, population movement, and spillovers during the pandemic: Evidence from Japan's restaurant restriction

    Zihan Xu, Satoru Shimokawa

    Health Economics    2024.06  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Last author, Corresponding author

    DOI

  • A trade-off between lives and the economy? Subsidizing dining out under the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan

    Yupeng Wang, Satoru Shimokawa

    Food Policy    2024.04  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Last author, Corresponding author

    DOI

    Scopus

  • The urban–rural gap in the demand for food safety in China: The role of food label knowledge

    Satoru Shimokawa, Dezhuang Hu, Dandan Li, Hong Cheng

    Agricultural Economics   52 ( 2 ) 175 - 193  2021.03  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Lead author

    DOI

    Scopus

    12
    Citation
    (Scopus)
  • Why can calorie posting be apparently ineffective? The roles of two conflicting learning effects

    Satoru Shimokawa

    Food Policy   64   107 - 120  2016.10  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Lead author, Corresponding author

     View Summary

    We investigate why the aggregate effect of calorie posting on calorie consumption can be insignificant by decomposing the learning effect into two conflicting components: a calorie-decreasing effect of learning that one was underestimating caloric content (LUE), and a calorie-increasing effect of learning that one was overestimating caloric content (LOE). Our lab snack-order experiments demonstrate the existence of the LUE effect (-8.3%) and the LOE effect (+4.8%), where the aggregate learning effect is -5.8%. Our results also imply that the LUE can be cancelled out by a positive saliency effect, while the undesirable saliency effect may be mitigated by combining the calorie posting with information about daily calorie needs. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

    DOI

    Scopus

    5
    Citation
    (Scopus)
  • When does dietary knowledge matter to obesity and overweight prevention?

    Shimokawa, Satoru

    Food Policy   38 ( 1 ) 35 - 46  2013  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Lead author, Corresponding author

     View Summary

    Improving dietary knowledge has the potential to prevent obesity and overweight and, if effective, is a highly feasible policy measure. This paper proposes a new framework to examine the effects of dietary knowledge on nutrient intake and diet quality. The framework allows the effects to differ by one's expectation about food availability (EFA). Using data from China, we find that dietary knowledge affects mainly the quantity of diet (e.g., lowering total calorie intake) when EFA is increasing, while it affects mainly the quality of diet (e.g., lowering the share of calories from oils) when EFA is decreasing. The effect on the quantity is larger among overweight adults, while the effect on the quality is more significant among non-overweight adults. Without distinguishing the direction of changes in EFA as in previous studies, the estimated effects of dietary knowledge tend to be smaller. Thus, as an anti-obesity measure, dietary education may be more effective than indicated by previous studies under the situations where EFA increases (e.g., introducing food coupons), while only marginally effective under the situations where EFA decreases (e.g., increasing real food prices). (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

    DOI

    Scopus

    34
    Citation
    (Scopus)
  • Nutrient Intake of the Poor and its Implications for the Nutritional Effect of Cereal Price Subsidies: Evidence from China

    Satoru Shimokawa

    World Development   38 ( 7 ) 1001 - 1011  2010.07  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Lead author, Corresponding author

     View Summary

    We incorporate habit formation into an analysis of the effect or cereal price changes on the nutrient intake of the poor in China. We find that the poor's nutrient intake responds asymmetrically to declines and increases in cereal prices, and that the asymmetric response of their fat intake may be due to habit formation. Our results also imply that introducing cereal price subsidies can increase their total energy intake by increasing their calorie intake from fat and protein, while ending such subsidies would insignificantly affect their total energy intake, but further increase their calorie intake from fat and protein. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

    DOI

    Scopus

    9
    Citation
    (Scopus)
  • Asymmetric intrahousehold allocation of calories in China

    Satoru Shimokawa

    American Journal of Agricultural Economics   92 ( 3 ) 873 - 888  2010.04  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Lead author, Corresponding author

     View Summary

    To analyze intrahousehold calorie allocation, we propose a new framework that takes into account asymmetric consumption behavior due to liquidity constraints and loss aversion We find that intrahousehold calorie allocation responds asymmetrically to expected declines and increases in household food availability in China Compared with previous studies based on symmetric consumption behavior, our framework provides stronger evidence of gender bias in intrahousehold calorie allocation among children in urban areas and among elderly people in rural areas, and of demographic bias between girls and prime-age adults in both urban and rural areas. Implications for demographic targeting in nutrition programs are discussed

    DOI

    Scopus

    10
    Citation
    (Scopus)
  • Do poverty and poor health and nutrition increase the risk of armed conflict onset?

    Per Pinstrup-Andersen, Satoru Shimokawa

    Food Policy   33 ( 6 ) 513 - 520  2008.12  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Last author

     View Summary

    We analyze the effects of improving the economic, food security and health status on the risk of armed cotntectflict onset, focusing on the factors related to the millennium development goals. We employ the discrete-time hazard model that allows us to examine the time-varying effects of socioeconomic factors controlling for the reverse effect of conflict. Our results show that income poverty and poor health and nutritional status are more significantly associated with armed conflict onset than GDP per capita, annual GDP growth. and the ratio of primary commodity exports over GDP. In particular, poor health and nutritional status seems to play a key role in inducing armed conflicts in Poor Countries. These results indicate that, when a majority of the poor and the malnourished resides in rural areas and depends on agriculture directly or indirectly, investments in public goods for agriculture and rural areas can be effective tools to achieve the multiple goals of reduced poverty, food security and armed conflict, including riots in early 2008 triggered by high food prices. Food policy can be an effective element of efforts to maintain stability. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

    DOI

    Scopus

    55
    Citation
    (Scopus)
  • Which food prices were more vulnerable to the COVID-19 blockade regulations in China? Comparison between perishable and storable vegetables

    Yupeng Wang, Satoru Shimokawa

    Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies    2022.05  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Last author, Corresponding author

    DOI

    Scopus

    3
    Citation
    (Scopus)
  • Promoting dietary guidelines and environmental sustainability in China

    Lei Lei, Satoru Shimokawa

    China Economic Review   59   101087 - 101087  2020.02  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Last author, Corresponding author

    DOI

    Scopus

    31
    Citation
    (Scopus)
  • The effect of health information on smoking intensity: does addiction matter?

    Sen Zeng, Satoru Shimokawa

    Applied Economics   52 ( 22 ) 2408 - 2426  2019.12  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Last author, Corresponding author

    DOI

    Scopus

    3
    Citation
    (Scopus)
  • Partial Smoking Ban and Secondhand Smoke Exposure in Japan

    Sen Zeng, Haruko Noguchi, Satoru Shimokawa

    International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health   16 ( 15 ) 2804 - 2804  2019.08  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Last author, Corresponding author

     View Summary

    Implementing smoking bans is a worldwide common practice for tobacco control. However, if the policy prohibits smoking partially rather than comprehensively, it may increase nonsmokers’ exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) in nonprohibited places. This paper investigates how a partial smoking ban affected nonsmokers’ SHS exposure (measured by frequency of having exposure to SHS in days per month) in households, workplaces, and restaurants by examining the case of a partial smoking ban introduced in a large Japanese prefecture in 2013. Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHNS) in 2010, 2013, and 2016 (n = 30,244) and the Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions (CSLC) from 2001 to 2016 (n = 2,366,896), this paper employs a difference-in-differences (DID) approach. We found that the partial smoking ban significantly increased their SHS exposure in households and workplaces by 2.64 days and 4.70 days per month, respectively, while it did not change nonsmokers’ SHS exposure in restaurants. The results imply that the smoking ban displaced smokers from public places to private places. We also found that neither smokers’ smoking status nor smoking intensity changed significantly after implementing the partial smoking ban. Comprehensive smoking bans are needed to better protect nonsmokers from SHS exposure.

    DOI

    Scopus

    3
    Citation
    (Scopus)
  • Emerging Markets for US Pork in China: Experimental Evidence from Mainland and Hong Kong Consumers

    David L. Ortega, Maolong Chen, Satoru Shimokawa, H. Holly Wang

    Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics   42 ( 2 ) 275 - 290  2017.05  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    A major concern for international marketers is how products will be received by foreign consumers in other markets. This study uses choice modeling to assess Chinese consumer preferences for pork and evaluate the potential demand for U.S. pork in the cities of Guangzhou and Hong Kong. We find that differences in preferences for domestic versus imported pork can be explained, in part, by consumers' level of patriotism. Marketing pork with a food safety claim can increase market demand for U.S. products, and accounting for differences in nationalistic attitudes can aid marketing efforts.

  • Consumer preferences for US beef products: a meta-analysis

    Shimokawa, Satoru

    Italian Review of Agricultural Economics   71 ( 2 ) 177 - 195  2016.12  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Last author

     View Summary

    By conducting a meta-analysis with 57 observations collected from 20 primary studies, we systematically analyze heterogeneities in consumer preferences for the Country-of-Origin-Labeling (COOL) of US beef products. We find that consumers often prefer their domestic beef products due to patriotism. Consumers in Asian (mainly, Korea and Japan) and European countries (such as France, Germany and UK) are willing to pay significantly lower prices for US beef products compared to their domestic products; while the US consumers are willing to pay more for the domestic products than the imported ones.

    DOI

  • Nutritional impacts of rising food prices in African countries: a review

    Xiaohua Yu, Satoru Shimokawa

    Food Security   8 ( 5 ) 985 - 997  2016.10  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Last author

     View Summary

    This paper investigates the influences of food price spikes on nutritional outcomes in six African countries: DR Congo, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda. Drawing on the estimates of food demand elasticity with respect to food prices in previous studies, we constructed the elasticity of calorie and protein consumption with respect to food prices. We find that, while increasing cereal prices has the largest negative influences on both calorie and protein consumption in all the countries, the magnitude of the influences may differ by regions and the country's dietary patterns. The negative influences are particularly large in rural areas and in the countries whose diets highly depend on a single staple cereal while small in the countries whose diets have alternative staple foods. Our findings highlight the importance of stabilizing cereal prices to reduce calorie deficiency while it may not be enough to improve protein deficiency.

    DOI

    Scopus

    13
    Citation
    (Scopus)
  • Sustainable meat consumption in China

    Satoru Shimokawa

    Journal of Integrative Agriculture   14 ( 6 ) 1023 - 1032  2015  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Lead author, Corresponding author

     View Summary

    Sustainable meat consumption is critical to achieve a sustainable food system because meat products are among the most energy-intensive, ecologically burdensome, and ethically concerned foods. This paper focuses on the case of China and discusses the difficulties and possibilities to achieve sustainable meat consumption in China by reviewing previous empirical studies and descriptive statistics, particularly considering consumers' dietary transitions in quantity and quality following China's rapid economic growth. Given China's sheer size of population and meat demand, the sustainable meat consumption in China is also a relevant topic in the global food system.

    DOI

    Scopus

    42
    Citation
    (Scopus)
  • Understanding the differences in obesity among working adults between Taiwan and China

    Satoru Shimokawa, Hung-Hao Chang, Per Pinstrup-Andersen

    Asia Pacific Journal of Clinical Nutrition   18 ( 1 ) 88 - 95  2009  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Lead author

     View Summary

    Objective: To investigate the difference in the prevalence of obesity and the associations between the risk of obesity and socioeconomic factors with regard to working adults in China and Taiwan. Data: the 2000 China Health and Nutrition Survey and the 2001 National Health Interview Survey in Taiwan, which contains information from 20-60-year-old working adults in China (3,067 men and 2,998 women) and Taiwan (6,475 men and 6,341 women). Method: Variables were converted to cross-economy comparable forms, and the estimated prevalence of obesity across socioeconomic groups was compared between China and Taiwan. Probit models were used to examine the associations between socioeconomic factors and the probability of being obese. Results: In China, the prevalence of obesity was higher in the higher income, more educated, and more sedentary occupation groups, while it was higher in the lower income and less educated groups in Taiwan. Also, our results indicate that occupational types rather than income and education levels are more significantly associated with the probability of being obese in China, whereas income and education levels rather than occupational types are more significantly associated with the probability of being obese in Taiwan. These findings may indicate that, when an economy becomes more developed, the association between obesity risk and income and education levels becomes more significant and negative especially among women, while the association between obesity risk and occupational types decreases especially among men.

  • Rural infrastructure and agricultural development,Infrastructures rurales et développement agricole

    Andersen, P.P., Shimokawa, S.

    Revue d'Economie du Developpement   21 ( 4 )  2008

    DOI

  • Rural Infrastructure and Agricultural Development

    Pinstrup-Andersen, Per, Shimokawa, Satoru

    Rethinking Infrastructure for Development    2008

  • The labour market impact of body weight in China: a semiparametric analysis

    Satoru Shimokawa

    Applied Economics   40 ( 8 ) 949 - 968  2008  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Lead author, Corresponding author

     View Summary

    While a positive wage effect of Body Mass Index (BMI) is widely observed in low-income developing countries, a negative wage effect of BMI is often observed in high-income developed countries. To fill the gap between these previous findings, we investigate the relationship between body weight and wages in transition economies. We focus on China, whose rapid economic growth of the 1990s was followed by a rapid increase in overweight and obesity while still experiencing significant food insecurity and underweight. we first use several parametric regression strategies to obtain a consistent estimate of the wage effects of weight. Second, we adopt a semiparametric partially linear model that allows for endogeneity of weight. Parametric regressions provide mixed results, and the sign and magnitude of their estimates are sensitive to the choice of samples and regression strategies. Semiparametric estimates provide evidence of a wage penalty for very heavy and thin persons among both men and women. The wage penalty is more significant among men than among women. Semiparametric results also indicate that parametric estimates can overstate and misrepresent the wage effects of weight for healthy weight persons due to their restrictive functional form assumptions.

    DOI

    Scopus

    38
    Citation
    (Scopus)

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Books and Other Publications

  • 食べる経済学 (未来のわたしにタネをまこう 1)

    下川 哲( Part: Sole author)

    大和書房  2021.11 ISBN: 4479393749

    ASIN

  • The Rising Cost of a Healthy Diet: Changing Relative Prices of Foods in High-income and Emerging Economies

    Steve Wiggins, Sharada Keats, Euna Han, Satoru Shimokawa, Joel Alberto Vargas Hernandez, Rafael Moreira Claro( Part: Contributor)

    Overseas Development Institute  2015

  • Rural Infrastructure and Agricultural Development.

    Pinstrup-Andersen, Per, Satoru Shimokawa. (Eds, F. Bourguignon, B. Pleskovic

    Rethinking Infrastructure for Development, The World Bank.  2007

Presentations

  • 経済学から読み解く「食」と未来社会

    下川 哲  [Invited]

    第34回日本疫学会学術総会 

    Presentation date: 2024.02

  • Distinguishing Attitude and Belief Expressions from Economic Preferences in Long-Lasting Aversion in Food Choice

    Shimokawa, Satoru, Kito, Yayoi, Kudo, Haruyo, Yamaguchi, Michitoshi, Niiyama, Yoko

    International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) , Virtual 

    Presentation date: 2021.08

  • No-tolerant Consumers, Information Treatments, and Demand for Stigmatized Foods: the Case of Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident in Japan

    Satoru Shimokawa, Yoko Niiyama, Yayoi Kito, Haruyo Kudo, Michitoshi Yamaguchi

    International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) Conference  (Vancouver) 

    Presentation date: 2018.07

Research Projects

  • The Potential of Insect Farming to Facilitate Poverty Alleviation and Sustainable Food Production

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Project Year :

    2023.04
    -
    2027.03
     

  • Emerging food system problems caused by the long-term impact of COVID-19 on consumer mindset and behavior in Japan

    PRIMAFF  Contracting Research on Policy for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

    Project Year :

    2020.08
    -
    2023.03
     

    Satoru Shimokawa, Kiyokazu Ujiie

     [International coauthorship]

  • Sustainable Measures to Mitigate Consumers' Excessive Avoidance of Fukushima Foods - Behavioral Economics Approach

    Project Year :

    2019.04
    -
    2022.03
     

  • Consumer Demand and Satisfaction to Food Safety in China

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Project Year :

    2016.04
    -
    2019.03
     

    Shimokawa Satoru

     View Summary

    To explore the demand for food safety in both urban and rural China, we conducted a household survey with discrete choice experiments and consumer satisfaction surveys in urban and rural areas in Hubei Province. We measured the demand for rice and pork with the green food label or the organic food label.
    First, we find that “knowing the green food label” significantly increases the demand for green foods, and the influence is larger in urban areas than in rural areas. Even among consumers without knowing the label, the demand is positive in urban areas while almost zero in rural areas. These knowledge-related differences contribute to explaining about 30% of the urban-rural gap in the demand for green foods.
    Second, we show that the availability of foods with the food safety labels increases consumer satisfaction in China, and the positive effect is larger among consumers who did not purchase the labeled items than among those who purchased the labeled items.

  • Decision Making on Food Choice and Meal Construction and Requirements of Health Risk Communication

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Project Year :

    2019.04
    -
    2023.03
     

  • Development of risk communication model for food safety and requirements of profession

    Project Year :

    2015.04
    -
    2018.03
     

     View Summary

    The major achievement of this project has accumulated in the following areas. Regarding health effects of radioactive substances in food: (1) Structural models of public risk perception: a comparison of Japan, France and Korea. (2) Risk images and their sources in Japan and France. (3) Relationship between attitudes towards agricultural products from Fukushima, willingness to pay and response to scientific information. (4)①Changes in risk perception in panel data; ② Impacts of nuwmeracy on risk perception by scientific information. Regarding potential health risks: (5) Meal combination patterns. (6) Decision makings and eating norms on assembling meal. (7) Survey of higher education system in France and examination of requirements for profession of food safety

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Syllabus

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Social Activities

  • コロナ禍の飲食店政策を「人流データ」で振り返る

    東洋経済新報社  週刊東洋経済 

    2023.12
    -
     

  • やさしい経済学 食から考える世界と未来(1)ー(10)

    日本経済新聞社  日本経済新聞朝刊 

    2023.03
    -
    2023.04

  • 持続可能な『食』と『農』とは ~『食べる』から考える私たちの未来~

    東京都  くらしフェスタ東京 食と農セミナー 

    2022.12
    -
     

  • 経済学者が読み解く現代社会のリアル: 持続可能な食の実践に壁、人間の合理性の限界

    東洋経済新報社  週刊東洋経済 

    2020.06
    -
     

  • 食をめぐる私たちの未来 ~「食べる」の向こう側にあるもの~

    全国消費者団体連絡会  第62回全国消費者大会 

    2024.03
    -
     

  • Food x Biotech 未来会議

    スタートアップ・エコシステム 東京コンソーシアム 

    2024.03
    -
     

  • 日本の食を考える ~より良い未来につなげるために~

    公益社団法人 日本消費生活アドバイザー・コンサルタント・相談員協会  NACS公開講座 

    2024.02
    -
     

  • ~なぜ飢餓も食品ロスもなくならないのか?~食卓から考えるSDGs

    兵庫県立消費生活総合センター  消費者月間記念講演会 

    2023.05
    -
     

  • 飲食店支援と規制が人流と新型コロナ感染状況に与えた影響について

    早稲田大学・国立感染症研究所  早稲田大学ー感染研 連携10周年記念シンポジウム 

    2023.05
    -
     

  • 多論百出OPINION 持続可能な食料システムの実現には消費者が協力してしまう仕組みが不可欠

    日本政策金融公庫  AFCフォーラム 

    2023.01
    -
     

  • 著者と1時間「食べる経済学」

    東洋経済新報社  SMBCマネジメントプラス 

    2022.12
    -
     

  • 技術や経済面だけではない食料問題:人間らしさの難しさ

    Frompage  夢ナビライブ2022 

    2022.02
    -
     

  • 経済のメガネでいろいろな教科を見てみよう!「食べる」行為は 世界とつながっている

    朝日新聞社  レインボーニュース 

    2022
    -
     

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Sub-affiliation

  • Affiliated organization   Global Education Center

  • Faculty of Commerce   School of Commerce

Research Institute

  • 2023
    -
    2024

    Institute of Food and Energy Systems   Director of Research Institute

Internal Special Research Projects

  • カンボジアにおける食用コオロギの養殖を活用した貧困削減と未来型食品開発

    2022  

     View Summary

    本研究では、コオロギ粉末入り穀物飼料を使った鶏肉と牛肉に対する支払意思額を推計するため、オンライン調査を日本の消費者1650名に対して実施した。その中で、鳥は昆虫を食べるという食物連鎖を想起させることが、支払い意思額にどう影響するか検証した。トレーサビリティの影響も検証した。その結果、コオロギ粉末入り穀物飼料を使うことで、鶏肉と牛肉ともに支払意思額が50%近く減ることがわかった。食物連鎖を想起させることは、鶏肉への支払い意思額を悪化させるが、牛肉への影響はなかった。トレーサビリティは支払意思額を約15%増加させたが、コオロギ粉末入り穀物飼料の使用による負の効果を補うほどの効果はなかった。

  • Impact of Cultivated Land Conversion on Food Security in China

    2016  

     View Summary

    In China, the steep rise in cultivated land conversion, accompanied by a population increase, has provoked the debate about its impact on food security. Accordingly, the Chinese government emphasizes the importance of retaining cultivated land. However, it is still controversial if cultivated land conversion really threatens China’s food security. Thus, this study investigates the causal impact of cultivated land conversion on grain output in China by employing the instrumental variables estimation. Our estimation strategy exploits the facts that tax reform (a change in the enterprise tax-sharing scheme) and administrative decentralization in 2002 unintentionally influenced farmland conversion and that the magnitude of the unintended influences varied across local governments depending on how much their tax revenues had depended on the enterprise tax before the reform. Using data from 1999 to 2005, we found that land conveyance area significantly increased as local governments’ fiscal revenue decreased, and a decrease in farmland area caused by the land conveyance decreased grain output. Even after controlling for potential endogeneity bias, a 1% decrease in local government’s fiscal revenue increased land conveyance areas by 3.4%, and it decreased grain output by 0.10%. The findings may moderately support China’s recently imposed “redline” of 120 million hectares of cultivated land.