Updated on 2021/12/08

写真a

 
UEDA, Kozo
 
Affiliation
Faculty of Political Science and Economics, School of Political Science and Economics
Job title
Professor

Concurrent Post

  • Faculty of Political Science and Economics   Graduate School of Economics

  • Faculty of Social Sciences   Graduate School of Social Sciences

Research Institute

  • 2021
    -
    2022

    データ科学センター   兼任センター員

Degree

  • University of Oxford   DPhil

 

Research Areas

  • Economic policy

Papers

  • Firm Exit during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Japan

    Daisuke Miyakawa, Koki Oikawa, Kozo Ueda

    Journal of the Japanese and International Economies   59   101118 - 101118  2021.03  [Refereed]

    DOI

  • Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan

    Iiboshi, Hirokuni, Mototsugu Shintani, Kozo Ueda

    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking    2021  [Refereed]

  • Secular Stagnation and Low Interest Rates under the Fear of a Government Debt Crisis,

    Keiichiro Kobayashi, Kozo Ueda

    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking    2021

  • Dynamic cost of living index for storable goods

    Kozo Ueda

    Economics Letters   189   109013  2020

    DOI

  • (A)symmetric information bubbles: Experimental evidence

    Yasushi Asako, Yukihiko Funaki, Kozo Ueda, Nobuyuki Uto

    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control   110   103744 - 103744  2020.01

    DOI

  • Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective

    Katagiri, Mitsuru, Hideki Konishi, Kozo Ueda

    Journal of Monetary Economics   111   1-15  2020

    DOI

  • Short- and Long-Run Tradeoff of Monetary Easing

    Koki Oikawa, Kozo Ueda

    Journal of the Japanese and International Economies   52   189 - 200  2019

    DOI

  • Strategic Central Bank Communication: Discourse Analysis of the Bank of Japan's Monthly Report

    Kawamura, Kohei, Yohei Kobashi, Masato Shizume, Kozo Ueda

    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control   100   230 - 250  2019

    DOI

  • Product Turnover and the Cost of Living Index: Quality vs. Fashion Effects

    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics   11 ( 2 ) 310 - 347  2019

    DOI

  • Working Less and Bargain Hunting More: Macroimplications of Sales during Japan's Lost Decades

    Nao Sudo, Kozo Ueda, Kota Watanabe, Tsutomu Watanabe

    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking   50 ( 2-3 ) 449 - 478  2018.03

     View Summary

    Standard New Keynesian models have often neglected temporary sales. In this study, we ask whether this treatment is appropriate. We use Japanese scanner data covering the last two decades and find a negative correlation between the frequency of sales and hours worked. We then construct a model that takes households' decisions regarding their allocation of time for work, leisure, and bargain hunting into account. We show that the decline in hours worked explains the rise in the frequency of sales. The real effect of monetary policy shocks weakens by around 40% due to temporary sales, but monetary policy still matters.

    DOI

  • Retailer Market Concentration, Buyer-Size Discounts and Inflation Dynamics

    Mayumi Ojima, Junnosuke Shino, Kozo Ueda

    Japanese Economic Review   69 ( 1 ) 101 - 127  2018.03  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    This study considers the macroeconomic effects of retailer market concentration and buyer-size discounts on inflation dynamics. During Japan's “lost decades”, large retailers enhanced their market power, thus increasing the exploitation of buyer-size discounts in the procurement of goods. We incorporate this effect into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. Calibrating to the Japanese economy during the lost decades, we find that these developments led to a deflation of approximately 0.1% annually.

    DOI

  • The Optimal Inflation Rate under Schumpeterian Growth

    Oikawa, Koki, Kozo Ueda

    Journal of Monetary Economics   100   114 - 125  2018

    DOI

  • CHAINED CREDIT CONTRACTS AND FINANCIAL ACCELERATORS

    Naohisa Hirakata, Nao Sudo, Kozo Ueda

    ECONOMIC INQUIRY   55 ( 1 ) 565 - 579  2017.01  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    Sufficiently high net worth of financial intermediaries (FIs) is considered a necessary condition for financial and macroeconomic stability. In this paper, we explore why the net worth of FIs is important as compared to that of nonfinancial firms using a dynamic general equilibrium model, in which both FIs and nonfinancial firms rely on costly external debt. We find that an exogenous disruption of the FIs' net worth has a greater aggregate impact than does the same-sized disruption of the nonfinancial firms' net worth. The key reason is that the net worth of the FIs in the United States is small. (JEL E22, E44, G21)

    DOI

  • Japan's financial crises and lost decades

    Naohisa Hirakata, Nao Sudo, Ikuo Takei, Kozo Ueda

    JAPAN AND THE WORLD ECONOMY   40   31 - 46  2016.12  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    In this paper, we explore the role of financial intermediation malfunction in macroeconomic fluctuations in Japan. To this end we estimate, using Japanese data, a financial accelerator model in which the balance sheet conditions of entrepreneurs in a goods-producing sector and those of a financial intermediary affect macroeconomic activity. We find that shocks to the balance sheets of the two sectors have been quantitatively playing important role in macroeconomic fluctuations by affecting lending rates and aggregate investments. Their impacts are prominent in particular during financial crises. Shocks to the entrepreneurs' balance sheets have played a key role in lowering investment in the bubble burst during the early 1990s and in the global financial crisis during the late 2000s. Shocks to the financial intermediaries' balance sheets have persistently lowered investment throughout the 1990s. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V.

    DOI

  • Policy regime change against chronic deflation? Policy option under a long-term liquidity trap

    Ippei Fujiwara, Yoshiyuki Nakazono, Kozo Ueda

    JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES   37   59 - 81  2015.09  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    The policy package known as Abenomics appears to have influenced the Japanese economy drastically, in particular, in the financial markets. In this paper, focusing on the aggressive monetary easing of Abenomics, the first arrow, we evaluate its role in guiding public perceptions on monetary policy stance through the management of expectations. In order to end chronic deflation, such as that which Japan has been suffering over the last two decades, policy regime change must be perceived by economic agents. Analysis using the QUICK survey system (QSS) monthly survey data shows that monetary policy reaction to inflation rates has been in a declining trend since the mid 2000s, implying intensified forward guidance well before Abenomics. However, Japan seems to have moved closer to a long-term liquidity trap, where even long-term bond yields are constrained by the zero lower bound. Consequently, no sizable difference in perceptions has been found before and after the introduction of Abenomics. Estimated changes in perceptions are not abrupt enough to satisfy "Sargent's (1982) criteria for regime change" termed by Eggertsson (2008). This poses a serious challenge to central banks: what is an effective policy option left under the long-term liquidity trap? RIM, Japan; Keio University, Japan; Australian National University, Australia; Yokohama City University, Japan; Waseda University, Japan. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

    DOI

  • THE BOY WHO CRIED BUBBLE: PUBLIC WARNINGS AGAINST RIDING BUBBLES

    Yasushi Asako, Kozo Ueda

    ECONOMIC INQUIRY   52 ( 3 ) 1137 - 1152  2014.07  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    Attempts by governments to stop bubbles by issuing warnings seem unsuccessful. This article examines the effects of public warnings using a simple model of riding bubbles. We show that public warnings against a bubble can stop it if investors believe that a warning is issued in a definite range of periods commencing around the starting period of the bubble. If a warning involves the possibility of being issued too early, regardless of the starting period of the bubble, it cannot stop the bubble immediately. Bubble duration can be shortened by a premature public warning, but lengthened if it is late.(JEL D82, E58, G18)

    DOI

  • Micro Price Dynamics during Japan's Lost Decades

    Nao Sudo, Kozo Ueda, Kota Watanabe

    ASIAN ECONOMIC POLICY REVIEW   9 ( 1 ) 44 - 64  2014.01  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    We study micro price dynamics and their macroeconomic implications using daily scanner data from 1988 to 2013. We provide five facts. First, posted prices in Japan are ten times as flexible as those in the US scanner data. Second, regular prices are almost as flexible as those in the USA and Euro area. Third, the heterogeneity of frequency and size of price change across products is sizable and maintained throughout the sample period. Fourth, during Japan's lost decades, temporary sales have played an increasingly important role in households' consumption expenditure. Fifth, the frequency of upward regular price revisions and the frequency of sales are significantly correlated with the macroeconomic environment, in particular indicators associated with a labor market, while other components of price changes are not.

    DOI

  • The fiscal multiplier and spillover in a global liquidity trap

    Ippei Fujiwara, Kozo Ueda

    JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL   37 ( 7 ) 1264 - 1283  2013.07  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    We consider the fiscal multiplier and spillover-the extent to which one country's government expenditure increases production at home and also in another foreign country, when the two countries are caught simultaneously in a liquidity trap. Using a standard new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) model, we show that the fiscal multiplier and spillover are contrary to textbook economics. For the country where government expenditure takes place, the fiscal multiplier exceeds one, the currency depreciates, and the terms of trade worsen. The fiscal spillover is negative if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption is less than one, and positive if it is greater than one. Incomplete stabilization of marginal costs due to the existence of the zero lower bound is critical in understanding the effects of fiscal policy in open economies. These results remain unchanged even if we incorporate incomplete markets or endogenous capital into the model, but local currency pricing yields positive fiscal spillover irrespective of the size of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    DOI

  • Capital Injection, Monetary Policy, and Financial Accelerators

    Naohisa Hirakata, Nao Sudo, Kozo Ueda

    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CENTRAL BANKING   9 ( 2 ) 101 - 145  2013.06  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    We evaluate the implications of spread-adjusted Taylor rules and capital injection policies in response to adverse shocks to the economy, using a variant of the financial accelerator model. Our model comprises the two credit-constrained sectors that raise external finance under credit market imperfection: financial intermediaries (FIs) and entrepreneurs. With the model estimated using the U. S. data, we find that a spread-adjusted Taylor rule mitigates (amplifies) the impact of adverse shocks when the shock is accompanied by a widening (shrinking) of the corresponding spread. We formalize a capital injection policy as a positive (negative) amount of injection to either of the two sectors in response to an adverse shock (a favorable shock). In contrast to a spread-adjusted Taylor rule, a positive injection boosts the economy regardless of the type of shock. The capital injection to the FIs has a greater impact on the economy compared with that to the entrepreneurs. Our result shows support for adopting the spread-adjusted Taylor rules and capital injections, although welfare implication varies depending on the source of economic downturn and excessive responses aggravate welfare.

  • Policy commitment and market expectations: Lessons learned from survey based evidence under Japan's quantitative easing policy

    Yoshiyuki Nakazono, Kozo Ueda

    Japan and the World Economy   25-26   102 - 113  2013.01

     View Summary

    The Bank of Japan conducted its quantitative easing policy (QEP) from 2001 to 2006, with the policy commitment to maintaining its QEP until the CPI inflation rate became stably zero or higher. We evaluate its effects by using individual survey data on inflation expectations as well as interest rate expectations. Our analysis reveals a kinked relationship between interest rate expectations and inflation rate expectations at around the 0% threshold level of inflation expectations, in tune with this policy commitment. In addition, we evaluate the effects of the policy commitment on market expectations for the future path of short-term interest rates after the termination of the QEP. We find that, even when inflation expectations exceeded the threshold, interest rate expectations responded only gradually to inflation rate expectations. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

    DOI

  • Banking globalization and international business cycles: Cross-border chained credit contracts and financial accelerators

    Kozo Ueda

    JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS   86 ( 1 ) 1 - 16  2012.01  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    This paper constructs a two-country DSGE model to study the nature of the recent financial crisis and its effects that spread immediately throughout the world owing to the globalization of banking. In the model, financial intermediaries (FIs) enter into chained credit contracts at home and abroad, engaging in cross-border lending to entrepreneurs by undertaking cross-border borrowing from investors. The FIs as well as the entrepreneurs in two countries are credit constrained, so all of their net worths matter. Our model reveals that under FIs' globalization, adverse shocks that hit one country affect the other, yielding business cycle synchronization on both the real and financial sides. It also suggests that the FIs' globalization, net worth shock, and credit constraints are key to understanding the recent financial crisis. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    DOI

  • Do banking shocks matter for the US economy?

    Naohisa Hirakata, Nao Sudo, Kozo Ueda

    JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL   35 ( 12 ) 2042 - 2063  2011.12  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    The quantitative significance of shocks to the financial intermediary (FI) has not received much attention up to now. We estimate a DSGE model with what we describe as chained credit contracts, using Bayesian technique. In the model, credit-constrained FIs intermediate funds from investors to credit-constrained entrepreneurs through two types of credit contract. We find that the shocks to the FIs' net worth play an important role in the investment dynamics, accounting for 17% of its variations. In particular, in the Great Recession, they are the key determinants of the investment declines, accounting for 36% of the variations. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    DOI

  • Determinants of households' inflation expectations in Japan and the United States

    Kozo Ueda

    JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES   24 ( 4 ) 503 - 518  2010.12  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    Ueda, Kozo-Determinants of households' inflation expectations in Japan and the United States
    Using a VAR model that includes survey data on households' inflation expectations for Japan and the US, we investigate their determinants and influences on the economy and compare their properties in two countries. Short-term non-recursive restrictions are imposed taking account of simultaneous co-dependence between realized and expected inflation. We find that responding to changes in exogenous prices and to monetary policy shocks, inflation expectations adjust more quickly than does realized inflation. Compared with Japan, the effects of exogenous prices on inflation and inflation expectations in the US are not only large but also long lasting and shocks to expectations have self-fulfilling effects on inflation. J.Japanese Int. Economies 24 (4) (2010) 503-518. Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 2-1-1 Nihonbashi-Hongokucho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, Japan. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

    DOI

  • Central Bank Communication and Multiple Equilibria

    Kozo Ueda

    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CENTRAL BANKING   6 ( 3 ) 145 - 167  2010.09  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    In this paper, we construct a simple model for communication between a central bank and money-market traders. It is demonstrated that there are multiple equilibria. In one equilibrium, traders truthfully reveal their own information, and by learning this, the central bank can make better forecasts. Another equilibrium is a "dog-chasing-its-tail" equilibrium described by Blinder (1998). Traders mimic the central bank's forecast, so the central bank simply observes its own forecast from traders. The latter equilibrium is socially worse, as inflation variability becomes larger. As policy implications, we find that too-high transparency of central banks is bad because it yields the "dog-chasing-its-tail" equilibrium, and central banks should conduct continuous monitoring or emphasize that their forecasts are conditional because doing so eliminates the "dog-chasing-its-tail" equilibrium. We also consider the possibility of the existence of an optimal degree of transparency.

  • Estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Japan

    Tomohiro Sugo, Kozo Ueda

    JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES   22 ( 4 ) 476 - 502  2008.12  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    We estimate a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Japanese economy following Christiano et al. [Christiano, L., Eichenbaum, M., Evans, C., 2005. Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy. J. Polit. Economy 113 (1), 1-45]. By using actual capital utilization data and modifying the formulation of utilization following Greenwood et al. [Greenwood, J., Hercowitz, Z., Huffmann, G.W., 1988. Investment, capacity utilization, and the real business cycle. Amer. Econ. Rev. 78 (3), 402-417], this paper Succeeds in incorporating a negative correlation between capital utilization and rental costs to explain actual capital utilization rates. We find that an investment adjustment cost shock is as important as a productivity shock that affects business cycles. We also find hump-shaped and persistent behavior of inflation rates in response to a monetary policy shock, which Christiano et al. cast doubt upon. J Japanese Int. Economies 22 (4) (2008) 476-502. Monetary Affairs Department, Bank of Japan, Japan. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

    DOI

  • Eliminating a deflationary trap through superinertial interest rate rules

    Tomohiro Sugo, Kozo Ueda

    ECONOMICS LETTERS   100 ( 1 ) 119 - 122  2008.07  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    This paper demonstrates that, even in the presence of a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, central banks can eliminate a deflationary trap by the conduct of interest rate rules that have superinertia. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    DOI

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Research Projects

  • 名目金利のゼロ制約、および、行動経済学要素を取り込んだ非線形マクロモデルの推計

    Project Year :

    2019.04
    -
    2024.03
     

     View Summary

    DSGEモデルは、現代のマクロ経済学における標準的分析ツールであるものの、多くの限界が指摘されている。本研究では、第1に名目金利のゼロ制約を考慮し、第2に「経済主体は将来の経済状態について完全には理解しない」とする行動経済学要素を取り込んで、モデルを構築し推計する。そして、得られた推計値から、金融政策、特にフォワードガイダンスの効果、など政策シミュレーションを実施する。こうした研究は、計算負荷の高さからいまだ存在しないだけでなく、高い現実妥当性から学術的にも政策的にも重要性が大きい

  • Central Bank Communication Design

    Project Year :

    2018.06
    -
    2023.03
     

  • Designing central bank communication systems

    Project Year :

    2018.04
    -
    2019.03
     

  • Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective

    Project Year :

    2014.04
    -
    2018.03
     

     View Summary

    Negative correlations between inflation and demographic aging were observed across developed nations recently. To understand the phenomenon from a politico-economic perspective,we embed the fiscal theory of the price level into an overlapping-generations model. In the model, successive short-lived governments choose income tax rates and bond issues considering the political influence of existing generations and the policy response of future governments. The model sheds new light on the traditional debate about the burden of national debt. Because of price adjustments, the accumulation of government debt does not become a burden on future generations. Our analysis reveals that the effects of aging depend on its causes. Aging is deflationary when caused by an increase in longevity but inflationary when caused by a decline in birth rate. Numerical simulation shows that aging over the past 40 years in Japan generated deflation of about 0.6 percentage points annually

  • 低金利・少子高齢化下での財政政策と物価への影響

    Project Year :

    2013.08
    -
    2015.03
     

     View Summary

    本研究は、少子高齢化のもとでの財政政策と物価への影響について明らかにすることを目的とする。今年度は、その理論的基礎となるモデルを構築し、論文をワーキングペーパーとして刊行した(Hideki Konishi and Kozo Ueda, "Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective," Bank of Japan Discussion Paper Series 2013-E-13, 2013.)。また、北海道大学で研究発表を行った。モデルでは、「物価水準の財政理論(Fiscal Theory of Price Level、以下FTPL)」を、人口動態と財政政策に着目しながら、2つの点で拡張した。第1に、世代重複モデルに変更した。若年・老年世代を明示的に分離し、人口動態が財政政策や物価に与える影響を考察するために、FTPLを世代重複モデルに応用した。第2に、財政政策を内生化した。既存のFTPLでは財政政策は外生とされているところであるが、本モデルでは、政治経済学的手法を用いて、政府は、若年と老年世代の効用の和を最大化するように、税金と国債発行額を内生的に決定するものとした。この際、政府は、自身の政策が物価に与える影響も考慮に入れる。モデルを通して、少子高齢化が財政政策を通じてデフレを生むことを示した。ただし、その結論は、少子高齢化の原因によって異なる。すなわち、寿命の伸びはデフレにつながる一方、出生率の低下はインフレにつながることが示された。翌年度、交付申請を辞退するため、記入しない。翌年度、交付申請を辞退するため、記入しない

  • デフレ下における、財の新陳代謝と企業の価格設定行動(国際共同研究強化)

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Specific Research

  • 非線形マクロモデルの推計

    2019  

     View Summary

     DSGEモデルは、現代のマクロ経済学における標準的分析ツールであるものの、多くの限界が指摘されている。本研究では、第1に名目金利のゼロ制約を考慮し、第2に「経済主体は将来の経済状態について完全には理解しない」とする行動経済学要素を取り込んで、モデルを構築し推計する。そして、得られた推計値から、金融政策、特にフォワードガイダンスの効果、など政策シミュレーションを実施する。 これまでの進捗は以下の通り。第1に、新しいモデルの構築と解の特徴の分析を行った。第2に、その基礎となるモデルの構築・推計を行い、論文を改訂し、国際的に評価の高い学術誌に再投稿した。

  • プロダクトサイクルと長期デフレ

    2017  

     View Summary

     本研究では、わが国経済が長期のデフレ状態から脱し持続的な成長パスに復するための処方箋を得ることを最終的な目標とする。この目的のため、具体的には、(1)理論・実証の双方から、(2)財の新陳代謝(入れ替え)と企業の価格設定行動を考慮した分析を行う。 財の頻繁な新陳代謝は、わが国のデフレ、及び、企業の価格設定行動にどのような含意をもつのだろうか。新陳代謝を考慮すると、望ましい金融政策はどのように規定されるのか。実証と理論の双方のアプローチで、これらの問いに答えるのが本研究の狙いである。 本年度中の成果として、2つの研究を同時に進めた。第1に、財の頻繁な新陳代謝について、小売店のスキャナーデータを用いた分析を進めた。第2に、財の新陳代謝が企業の規模の成長や縮小につながるメカニズムを考慮した理論モデルを構築した。

  • 少子高齢化下での財政政策と物価・金融政策への影響

    2016  

     View Summary

    本研究では、低金利・少子高齢化のもとでの財政政策とその物価、金融政策への影響について明らかにすることを目的とする。この目的のため、物価水準の財政理論(Fiscal Theory of Price Level)を基礎としたモデルを世代重複モデルの利用および財政政策の内生化という2点で改良した。昨年度、これまで作成してきた論文を改定し外部査読誌に投稿したが、本年度も依然としてその結果を待つ状態にある。こうした中、一橋大学での学内セミナー、および、一橋大学が主催した政策フォーラムで報告した。

  • 少子高齢化下での財政政策と物価・金融政策への影響

    2015  

     View Summary

    本研究では、低金利・少子高齢化のもとでの財政政策とその物価、金融政策への影響について明らかにすることを目的とする。この目的のため、物価水準の財政理論(Fiscal Theory of Price Level)を基礎としたモデルを世代重複モデルの利用および財政政策の内生化という2点で改良した。本年度は、これまでの論文を改定した後、外部査読誌に投稿した。同時にドイツなどでの学会で報告した。本論文は、2015年5月、英国の雑誌「Economist」にも紹介された。

  • 少子高齢化下での財政政策と物価・金融政策への影響

    2014  

     View Summary

    本研究では、少子高齢化のもとでの財政政策と物価・金融政策への影響について明らかにすることを目的とする。今年度は、まず、これまでの分析を大幅に改良した。読みやすさをはかるために、論文の構成を抜本的に見直したほか、現実のデータ、特に過去40年の人口動態と各時点での予測値や、世代別投票参加率に関するデータなどを収集し、それに基づき、人口動態変化の物価・財政への影響をシミュレーションした。

  • 低金利・少子高齢化下での財政政策と物価への影響

    2013  

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    本研究では、失われた10年(20年)の背景について、「物価水準の財政理論(Fiscal Theory of Price Level、以下FTPL)」を基礎として、人口動態と財政政策に着目しながら、一つの視座を提供する。FTPLは、Sargent and Wallace (1981), Leeper (1991), Sims (1994), and Woodford (1995)らによって発展してきた理論であり、金融政策ではなく、財政政策が物価水準を決定するメカニズムを明らかにする。例えば、財政赤字の拡大は物価水準を上昇させる。これは、財政赤字の拡大によって、家計にかかる税負担が減ることで、富効果によって家計消費が増加し、物価水準が上昇するからである。 FTPLを用いることで、本研究では、財政政策が物価に与える影響について理論的に分析し、わが国経済についての含意を考察する。同理論は、金融政策をパッシブと捉える点で、名目金利のゼロ制約に直面したわが国経済の現況と整合的である。具体的には、わが国経済をより良く捉えるモデルを構築するため、FTPLを以下の2点で改良する。第1に、世代重複モデルに変更する。これまでの研究は無期限期間モデルを用いることが多い中、本研究では、若年・老年世代を明示的に分け、人口動態が財政政策や物価に与える影響を考察するために、FTPLを世代重複モデルに応用する。第2の改良は、財政政策の内生化である。政治経済学的手法を用いて、政府は、若年と老年世代の効用の和を最大化するように、税金と国債発行額を内生的に決定するとする。この際、政府は、自身の政策が物価に与える影響も考慮に入れる。一方、政府支出は外生とする。 こうした改良を施すことで、「少子高齢化が財政政策を通じてデフレを生む」という結果を導いた。少子高齢化が進むと、老年世代の割合が大きくなるため、彼らが政府に与える影響も相対的に大きくなる。老年世代は、自身が若年の時に購入した国債の実質価値を増大させるために、物価下落を選好する。したがって、政府は若年世代に課す税金を増やすような政策を選択し、デフレが生じることになる。こうした結論は、財政赤字がインフレを生むという、標準的なFTPLから得られる結論とは対照的である。

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