Updated on 2021/12/08

写真a

 
BAAK, Saang Joon
 
Affiliation
Faculty of International Research and Education, School of International Liberal Studies
Job title
Professor

Concurrent Post

  • Faculty of International Research and Education   Graduate School of Asia Pacific Studies

  • Faculty of Political Science and Economics   Graduate School of Economics

Research Institute

  • 2019
    -
     

    産業経営研究所   兼任研究所員

Education

  •  
    -
    1997

    University of Wisconsin-Madison   Graduate School, Division of Economics   Economics  

  •  
    -
    1990

    Seoul National University   Graduate School, Division of Economics   Economics  

  •  
    -
    1988

    Seoul National University   Faculty of Economics   Economics  

Degree

  • University of Wisconsin-Madison, US   Ph. D.

Research Experience

  • 1997
    -
     

    (KIET), Sep. ~ Mar. 1999

  •  
     
     

    AssociateResearchFellow,KoreaInstituteforIndustrialEconomics&Trade

Professional Memberships

  •  
     
     

    Japanese Economic Association

  •  
     
     

    American Economic Association

  •  
     
     

    Econometric Society

  •  
     
     

    Society for Computational Economics

 

Research Areas

  • Economic theory

  • Economic statistics

  • Economic policy

  • Economic policy

Research Interests

  • heterogeneous expectations, dynamic economics, exchange rate, trade

Papers

  • Monetary Policy and Corporate Investment: Analysis of the Asset Price Channel and the Balance Sheet Channel

    SaangJoon Baak

    BOK Economic Analysis   2018-9  2018.03

  • Is the yen misaligned more during the Abenomics period?

    SaangJoon Baak

    Japan and the World Economy   ( 44 ) 26 - 34  2017.10  [Refereed]

  • Estimates of Korea’s bilateral export functions

    SaangJoon Baak

    Journal of Market Economy   44 ( 1 ) 1 - 32  2015

  • Do Chinese and Korean products compete in the Japanese market? An investigation of machinery exports

    Saangjoon Baak

    JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES   34   256 - 271  2014.12  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    The purpose of this paper is to examine whether and to what extent Chinese and Korean products in the machinery industry compete with each other in the Japanese market. Empirical tests of panel data of 16 machinery products from 2000Q1 to 2012Q2 show that a decrease in the unit prices of Chinese exports leads to a decrease in the demand for Korean exports. In contrast, a decrease in the unit prices of Korean exports does not lead to a decrease in the demand for Chinese exports. In addition, lagged Chinese prices have bigger impacts on current Korean prices than lagged Korean prices on current Chinese prices. Simulation experiments investigating the impacts of a change in exchange rates on the Chinese and Korean export volumes also confirm that the Korean variables do not affect the Chinese export volume as much as the Chinese variables affect the Korean export volume. Overall, the findings in the present paper indicate that China has already emerged as a formidable competitor to Korea in the Japanese machinery market. J. Japanese Int. Economies 34 (2014) 256-271. School of International Liberal Studies, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

    DOI

  • Changes in the Japanese market since Abenomics and penetration strategies for Korean firms

    朴相俊

    日本研究、韓日産業技術協力財団   14 ( 03 )  2014.03

  • The long recession of Japan and its lessons for Korea

    SaangJoon Baak

    Market and Government Research Center, Seoul National University    2014.03

  • Revisiting the J curve for Japan

    M. Ono, S.J. Baak

    Modern Economy   vol. 5   32 - 47  2014

  • 世界経済の環境の変化と韓国の輸出に対する影響

    朴相俊

    世界経済の構造転換が東アジア地域に与える影響、日中韓国際共同研究報告書、内閣府経済社会総合研究所    2013

  • Measuring misalignments in the Korean exchange rate

    SaangJoon Baak

    JAPAN AND THE WORLD ECONOMY   24 ( 4 ) 227 - 234  2012.12  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    This paper measures to what extent the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won is misaligned from its equilibrium value by estimating the equilibrium value using the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach. The economic fundamentals such as the terms of trade, the relative price of non-traded to traded goods, net foreign assets and real interest rate differentials are employed to assess the equilibrium exchange rate. Considering the drastic changes in Korea's trade pattern, the trade partner weights, which are used to compute the real effective exchange rate, are not fixed, but variable. The estimation results using the quarterly data from 1982Q1 to 2009Q4 indicate that the actual exchange rate of the Korean won was substantially overvalued for the period from 2005Q1 to 2007Q4, and substantially undervalued for the period from 2008Q2 to 2009Q3. The actual exchange rate deviates from the BEER and from the long-run equilibrium (or sustainable value) of the BEER by 32% and by 24% respectively in 2008Q4. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    DOI

  • Measuring misalignments in the Korean exchange rate

    SaangJoon Baak

    ERINA Discussion Paper   No. 1102e  2011

  • The impact of exchange rates on the Korean exports: Focusing the possibility of structural changes

    SaangJoon Baak

    Journal of Market Economy   vol. 40 ( no.1 ) 27 - 49  2011

  • The impact of the Chinese Renminbi on Korean and Japanese Exports to the United States

    SaangJoon Baak

    Korea and the World Economy   vol. 12 ( no. 3 ) 425 - 455  2011

  • Revisiting the J curve for Japan

    Masanori Ono, SaangJoon Baak

    Discussion Paper Series 66, The Economic Society of Fukushima University    2010

  • The service sector in the ROK

    SaangJoon Baak

    ERINA ROK Economic System Series   no. 14  2008

  • The bilateral real exchange rates and trade between China and the U.S.

    SaangJoon Baak

    China Economic Review   vol. 19, no. 3  2008  [Refereed]

  • The effect of the Chinese renminbi on Korean Exports to Japan

    SaangJoon Baak

    The Journal of Econometric Study of Northeast Asia   vol. 6, no. 1   103 - 112  2007

  • Exchange rate volatility and exports from East Asian countries to Japan and the U.S.

    SaangJoon Baak

    Applied Economics   vol. 39  2007  [Refereed]

  • The impact of the Chinese renminbi on the exports of the ROK and Japan to the US

    SaangJoon Baak

    ERINA Discussion Paper   No. 0604e  2006

  • Japanese yen and East-Asian currencies: Before and after the Asian financial crisis

    SaangJoon Baak

    Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy   9 ( 3 ) 271 - 287  2004

     View Summary

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the impact of the Japanese yen on the values of East Asian currencies has increased since the 1997 East Asian financial crisis. In particular, this paper focuses on four crisis-affected countries: Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines and Thailand. To this end, this paper estimates the weights of the Japanese yen in the determination of the values of the East Asian currencies using daily exchange rate data sets covering the pre-crisis period from January 1990 to June 1997 and the post-crisis period from January 1999 to June 2003. Empirical test results indicate that the impact of the Japanese yen on East Asian currencies has increased since the crisis. The null hypothesis that the weight of the Japanese yen remains the same is rejected for all four countries examined, supporting the alternative that it has increased since the financial crisis. © 2004 Taylor &amp
    Francis Ltd.

    DOI

  • Exchange rate volatility and trade among the Asia Pacific countries

    SaangJoon Baak

    Journal of International Economic Studies   8 ( 1 ) 93 - 116  2004

  • Exchange rate volatility and exports from East Asian countries to Japan and the U.S.

    SaangJoon Baak, Arif Al-Mahmood, Souksavanh Vixathep

    International Development Series   03-2  2003

  • The impact of the Japanese yen on the Korean won: before and after the Asian financial crisis

    SaangJoon Baak

    Journal of Econometric Study of Northeast Asia, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 39~50.   3 ( 2 ) 39 - 50  2002

  • Exchange rate volatility and the Korean exports

    SaangJoon Baak

    Journal of Korean Economic Analysis   7 ( 3 ) 179 - 213  2001

  • Dynamics of a market with market participants switching their expectation formation functions

    Korea’s Official Pool of International Economists & Regional Experts Series   2001-33  2001

  • Heterogeneous Expectations, Volatility and Welfare

    International Development Series   1  2000

  • Optimal strategies for the futures trade of the Korean Public Procurement Service

    SaangJoon Baak, Y.S. Jung

       1999

  • Tests for Bounded Rationality with a Linear Dynamic Model Distorted by Heterogeneous Expectations

    SaangJoon Baak

    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control   vol. 23   1517 - 1527  1999  [Refereed]

  • The macroeconomic effects of foreign direct investment

    SaangJoon Baak

    KIET industrial economy (KIET産業経済)   vol. 2  1998

  • Investment of Physical Capital in Korean Manufacturing Industries: From Quantity to Quality

    SaangJoon Baak

    KIET Economic Review   vol. 3 ( no. 2 ) 3 - 7  1998

  • IMF Bail-Out and Korea’s Economic Reform

    SaangJoon Baak, Y. S. Jung

    KIET Economic Review   vol. 3 ( no.1 ) 3 - 15  1998

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Books and Other Publications

  • 為替レート、金融と貿易、(第39章、現代韓国を知るための60章)

    朴相俊

    明石書店  2014 ISBN: 9784750340821

  • 韓国のサービス部門-その傾向と労働生産性の国際比較 (第4章、韓国経済の現代的課題)

    朴相俊

    日本評論社  2010 ISBN: 9784535556164

Research Projects

  • Impacts of tariffs of the US against China on the machinery exports of China and Japan to the US

    Project Year :

    2020.04
    -
    2023.03
     

     View Summary

    The research quantifies the impacts of tariff of the US on the exports of China and Japan. In addition, it constructs a structural model which can be used for similar analyses. If the model developed in the project could be employed to trace the impacts of various variables affecting exports

  • Was there a structural break in the impacts of exchange rates on the machinery exports of Japan to the US?

    Project Year :

    2017.04
    -
    2020.03
     

  • Is the Japanese yen misaligned?

    Project Year :

    2013.04
    -
    2016.03
     

     View Summary

    This paper measures to what extent the real effective exchange rate of the Japanese yen is misaligned from its equilibrium value by estimating the equilibrium value using the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach. The economic fundamentals such as the terms of trade, the relative price of non-traded to traded goods, and real interest rate differentials are employed to assess the equilibrium exchange rate. The estimation results using the quarterly data from 1990Q1 to 2014Q4 indicate that the actual exchange rate of the Japanese yen was substantially overvalued from 2008Q4 to 2012Q4. In contrast, it was not substantially misaligned from the equilibrium values from 2013Q1 to 2014Q4

  • グローバル経済におけるビジネスと会計制度の変化に関する経済学的研究

    科学研究費助成事業(早稲田大学)  科学研究費助成事業(基盤研究(A))

    Project Year :

    2012
    -
    2016
     

     View Summary

    本年度は初年度であり、当初の計画にしたがい、各グループ((a)ビジネス経済、(b)グローバル経済、(c)経済制度)内とメンバー全体が参加する会合(月1回)を通して、複数の共同研究課題を始動させた。特に、重要なアジェンダとして、「経済成長や市場整備が遅れた国々における会計制度に関する研究」(以下「途上国のビジネス経済学研究」と呼称)を想定して、複数の共同研究課題を開始した。例えば、IFRSのマクロ経済や金融市場に与える影響、ビジネス慣習が企業のパフォーマンスに与える影響、会計制度のネットワークやメカニズムデザイン理論による分析などである。
    従来からのセミナー(通称「金曜セミナー」:第2・4金曜日)を開催し、学内外の有力な研究者を招聘することにより、経済学と関連分野の研究フロンティアの共有に努めた。さらに、会計分野における計量分析の現状を確認し、かつ、共同研究課題選定に資するため、今年度より「経済と会計ワークショップ」を開始した。初年度として、2013年3月に外国から有力なゲスト講演者を招聘し、キックオフ・イベント(国際ワークショップ)を開催した。(a)の理論研究に関しては、Waseda Lectures on Auction Theory and Behavioral Economicsと題して、公開連続講義を開催した。(b)と(c)に関しては、Waseda Lectures on Auction Theory and Behavioral Economicsとして、モンゴルとバングラディシュにおける会計簿記制度の現状について、お二人の現地専門家による公開連続講演会を開催した。
    主に次年度に繰り越された資金により、当プロジェクトの公式ホームページが開設された。メンバー間の情報交換やセミナーやワークショップ情報などが配信され、各研究課題の研究成果の公開も随時加わる予定である。

  • 日本・東アジア諸国間における為替レート・ボラティリティと貿易

     View Summary

    時系列分析本研究の目的は東アジア諸国の対日・対米輸出に及ぼす為替レート・ボラティリティ(volatility:変動性)の影響の考察である。データ上の制約及び日本との貿易量の重要性に鑑み、東アジア諸国から香港・韓国・シンガポール・タイを選んで研究を行った。特に、本研究では東アジア諸国の対日・対米輸出が対日・対米為替レートのボラティリティによって負の影響を受けているか否かを検討した。1990年から2001年までのデータをcointegration推定式とerror-correction modelを利用し分析すると、香港の対日輸出を例外にすれば、対日為替レートのボラティリティは対日輸出に、対米為替レートのボラティリティは対米輸出に負の影響を及ぼすことが発見された。パネルデータ分析本研究の目的は日本と東アジア諸国(インドネシア・韓国・マレーシア・フィリピン・シンガポール・タイ)を含むアジア太平洋地域内の貿易に及ぼす為替レート・ボラティリティの影響の考察である。重力モデル(gravity model)で1980年から2002年までのパネルデータ(panel data)を分析した結果、為替レート・ボラティリティの負の影響が示された。特に、アジア通貨危機が起きた1997年を境に、為替レート・ボラティリティの負の影響力が前より大きくなったことが発見された。一方、データをOECD加入国とOECD非加入国と分けると、その負の影響力はOECD非加入国の場合より大きい、為替レート・ボラティリティの負の影響力は金融市場の発達と関係があると考えられる

  • 韓国における市場参加者のヘテロジーニアスな期待と為替レートの動き

     View Summary

    1982年から2009年までのデータで計測した結果、韓国の為替レートは2005年の1分期から2007年の4分期までは均衡値より相当高く評価されていたのが、2008年の2分期から2009年の3分期までは均衡値より相当低く評価されていた事が判明した。韓国為替レートのミスアラインメントを説明するため三つの価格決定モデルを検討した結果、ヘテロジーニアスな期待を仮定したモデルが他のモデルより価格変動に対する説明力が高かった。そのヘテロジーニアスな期待モデルを韓国の為替レートに適用した結果、既存のモデルよりは説明力があるが、韓国の為替レートの過度の変動性を説明するためには他の説明変数も必要であることが示唆された

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Specific Research

  • Was there a structural break in the impacts of exchange rates on the machinery exports of Japan to the US?

    2017  

     View Summary

    This research analyzes the panel data of ten-digit level machinery commodities which are exported from China, Japan and South Korea to the US from 2002Q1 to 2012Q4 to determine the impacts of exchange rates on the quantity and price of the exports of the three Asian countries involved. The TSLS estimation results show that a depreciation of the yen by 1% in a quarter leads to 0.47% increase in the Japanese quantity and 0.48% decrease in the Japanese price, resulting in a very slight change in the value of Japan’s exports in the same quarter. Even though it pushes up the Chinese quantity more than it pushes down the Chinese price, its impact on the Chinese export value is negligibly small. In contrast, a 1% depreciation of the yen in a quarter increases the Korean quantity by 0.85% and decreases the Korean price by 0.7% resulting in 0.15% increase in the Korean export value in the same quarter. In addition, it increases the Korean export value in the following quarter by 0.19%. The test for a structural break will be performed after the data coverage is extended to 2017Q4.

  • The impacts of exhange rates on the machinery exports from China, Japan and Korea to the US

    2016  

     View Summary

    This research analyzes the panel data of ten-digitlevel machinery commodities which are exported from China, Japan and SouthKorea to the US from 2002Q1 to 2012Q4 to determine the impacts of exchangerates on the quantity and price of the exports of the three Asian countriesinvolved. The TSLS estimation results show that a depreciation of the yen by 1%in a quarter leads to 0.47% increase in the Japanese quantity and 0.48%decrease in the Japanese price, resulting in a very slight change in the valueof Japan’s exports in the same quarter. Even though it pushes up the Chinesequantity more than it pushes down the Chinese price, its impact on the Chineseexport value is negligibly small. In contrast, a 1% depreciation of the yen ina quarter increases the Korean quantity by 0.85% and decreases the Korean priceby 0.7% resulting in 0.15% increase in the Korean export value in the samequarter. 

  • The impacts of exchange rates on the machinery exports from China, Japan and Korea to the US

    2016  

     View Summary

    This research analyzes the panel data of ten-digit level machinery commodities which are exported from China, Japan and South Korea to the US from 2002Q1 to 2012Q4 to determine the impacts of exchange rates on the quantity and price of the exports of the three Asian countries involved. The TSLS estimation results show that a depreciation of the yen by 1% in a quarter leads to 0.47% increase in the Japanese quantity and 0.48% decrease in the Japanese price, resulting in a very slight change in the value of Japan’s exports in the same quarter. Even though it pushes up the Chinese quantity more than it pushes down the Chinese price, its impact on the Chinese export value is negligibly small. In contrast, a 1% depreciation of the yen in a quarter increases the Korean quantity by 0.85% and decreases the Korean price by 0.7% resulting in 0.15% increase in the Korean export value in the same quarter. 

  • 市場参加者の合理性と近年の通貨危機における韓国為替レートの非合理的な動き

    2012  

     View Summary

    The purpose of this paper is to examine whether heterogeneous expectations models can explain the irrational dynamics ofthe Korean exchange rate during 2007-2008 global financial crisis. Even though the fundamental economic variables such as GDP, current account balance and unemployment rate were not badly affected by the so called sub-prime mortgage crisis and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Korea's currency value depreciated much more drastically than other Asian currencies in 2008. The present paper adopted heterogeneous models in which two types of market participants trade foreign currencies to maximize their profits in the foreign currency market. In the first model, one type of market participants have rational expectations and the other type has static expectations. In the second model, one type is fundamentalsits who believe that the exchange rate will return to the equilibrium value based on PPP. The other type is chartists who believe the current trend will persist. In the two models, market participants can change their expectations formations functions based on their past performance. Empirical tests using montly data for the period from 2000 January to 2012 June show that the two heterogeneous models better fit to the actual data than rational expectations models. In addition, the test results indicate the presence of heterogeneity in the expectations of market participants. However, the results are not consistent with theoretical prediction in the respect that the fraction of type-one agents do not increase but decrease when the performance of type-one expectation formation function outperform the performance of type-two expectations formation function.Finally, the heterogeneous models better capture the irrational movements of the Korean exchange rate in 2008-2009 than rational expectations models. However, the dynamics of the Korean exchange rate in that period were much more volatile than even the predictions of the heterogeneous models, implying that to explain the excessive volatility in the Korean exchange rate during the global crisis requires more than lack of rationality of economic agents.

  • グローバル化する日本経済の脱工業化とサービス貿易

    2008  

     View Summary

    1. Unbalanced capital-labor ratio among sectors and economic growthAs deindustrialization proceeds in advanced countries, labor shifts from the manufacturing sector to the service sector faster than physical capital. As a result, the capital-labor ratio of the service sector becomes relatively lower than that of the manufacturing sector. This paper investigates whether this unbalanced capital-labor ratio among sectors have some impacts on economic growth. Since sectoral investment data are not avaiable in general, the data were computed based on a multi-sector neo classical growth model. The empirical analysis using the WDI and Penn-world data for the period from 1980 to 2004 shows over-investment in a sector has negative influence on economic growth, implying that countires in which labor is moving to the service sector but capital investment does not follow will have sluguish economic growth.2. The service sector in the ROK: A comparison of trends and labor productivity with selected OECD countriesThis paper computes the labor productivity of five OECD countries (South Korea, Japan, Germany, UK, US) for the period from 1980 to 2003 using OECDSTAN indcators database (2005) and compares them. Especially by comparing the service sector productivity of South Korea (ROK) with those of Japan and other advanced countries, this paper aims to obtain policy implication regarding the service sector development. The computed productivity shows that South Korea and Japan follows very similar trend in which some service sectors are absorbing workers from some downsizing manufacturing sectors due to deindustrialization and thus suffer from low labor productivity. This problem chanllanges the two countries. One imprtant task of the Korean and the Japanese economy is to develop industries which will efficiently producing services and thus which will absorb workers from low-productive service sectors.

  • 脱産業化と経済成長(Deindustrialization and economic growth)

    2005  

     View Summary

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of deindustrialization on economic growth and to compare it with the impact of industrialization. The paper employs a two sector neo-classical growth model as the theoretical basis of empirical tests. The two sectors are industry (or manufacturing) and services. Then, the growth model is converted into testable growth equations. Empirical tests using data from 93 countries for the period from 1975 to 2002 indicate the contribution of the service sector on economic growth is almost the same as that of the manufacturing sector. However, further tests using sub sets of data with different income levels show the relative contribution of the sectors depend on income levels. The results imply that transition from agriculture to services without going through industrialization should not be a desirable development policy and that the impacts of deindustrialization on economic growth are positive for rich countries.

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Overseas Activities

  • Bounded rationality and Exchange rate volatility

    2010.04
    -
    2011.03

    アメリカ   Ann-Arbor,University of Michigan

 

Syllabus