The research quantifies the impacts of tariff of the US on the exports of China and Japan. In addition, it constructs a structural model which can be used for similar analyses. If the model developed in the project could be employed to trace the impacts of various variables affecting exports

This paper measures to what extent the real effective exchange rate of the Japanese yen is misaligned from its equilibrium value by estimating the equilibrium value using the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach. The economic fundamentals such as the terms of trade, the relative price of non-traded to traded goods, and real interest rate differentials are employed to assess the equilibrium exchange rate. The estimation results using the quarterly data from 1990Q1 to 2014Q4 indicate that the actual exchange rate of the Japanese yen was substantially overvalued from 2008Q4 to 2012Q4. In contrast, it was not substantially misaligned from the equilibrium values from 2013Q1 to 2014Q4

本年度は初年度であり、当初の計画にしたがい、各グループ（(a)ビジネス経済、(b)グローバル経済、(c)経済制度）内とメンバー全体が参加する会合（月1回）を通して、複数の共同研究課題を始動させた。特に、重要なアジェンダとして、「経済成長や市場整備が遅れた国々における会計制度に関する研究」（以下「途上国のビジネス経済学研究」と呼称）を想定して、複数の共同研究課題を開始した。例えば、IFRSのマクロ経済や金融市場に与える影響、ビジネス慣習が企業のパフォーマンスに与える影響、会計制度のネットワークやメカニズムデザイン理論による分析などである。
従来からのセミナー（通称「金曜セミナー」：第２・４金曜日）を開催し、学内外の有力な研究者を招聘することにより、経済学と関連分野の研究フロンティアの共有に努めた。さらに、会計分野における計量分析の現状を確認し、かつ、共同研究課題選定に資するため、今年度より「経済と会計ワークショップ」を開始した。初年度として、2013年3月に外国から有力なゲスト講演者を招聘し、キックオフ・イベント（国際ワークショップ）を開催した。(a)の理論研究に関しては、Waseda Lectures on Auction Theory and Behavioral Economicsと題して、公開連続講義を開催した。(b)と(c)に関しては、Waseda Lectures on Auction Theory and Behavioral Economicsとして、モンゴルとバングラディシュにおける会計簿記制度の現状について、お二人の現地専門家による公開連続講演会を開催した。
主に次年度に繰り越された資金により、当プロジェクトの公式ホームページが開設された。メンバー間の情報交換やセミナーやワークショップ情報などが配信され、各研究課題の研究成果の公開も随時加わる予定である。

時系列分析本研究の目的は東アジア諸国の対日・対米輸出に及ぼす為替レート・ボラティリティ(volatility:変動性)の影響の考察である。データ上の制約及び日本との貿易量の重要性に鑑み、東アジア諸国から香港・韓国・シンガポール・タイを選んで研究を行った。特に、本研究では東アジア諸国の対日・対米輸出が対日・対米為替レートのボラティリティによって負の影響を受けているか否かを検討した。1990年から2001年までのデータをcointegration推定式とerror-correction modelを利用し分析すると、香港の対日輸出を例外にすれば、対日為替レートのボラティリティは対日輸出に、対米為替レートのボラティリティは対米輸出に負の影響を及ぼすことが発見された。パネルデータ分析本研究の目的は日本と東アジア諸国(インドネシア・韓国・マレーシア・フィリピン・シンガポール・タイ)を含むアジア太平洋地域内の貿易に及ぼす為替レート・ボラティリティの影響の考察である。重力モデル(gravity model)で1980年から2002年までのパネルデータ(panel data)を分析した結果、為替レート・ボラティリティの負の影響が示された。特に、アジア通貨危機が起きた1997年を境に、為替レート・ボラティリティの負の影響力が前より大きくなったことが発見された。一方、データをOECD加入国とOECD非加入国と分けると、その負の影響力はOECD非加入国の場合より大きい、為替レート・ボラティリティの負の影響力は金融市場の発達と関係があると考えられる

Wasthere a structural break in the impacts of exchange rates on the machineryexports of Japan to the US?The purpose of the research is to investigate whether theimpact of exchange rates on export prices in the machinery exports from Japanto the US has changed after the Great Recession. The difference GMM estimationswith 10 digit HS-code level quantity and price data from 2002Q1 to 2018Q1 showthat a 1% depreciation of the yen reduces Japanese export prices by 0.61%before the Great Recession. On the contrary, the impact of exchange rates onexport prices turns out to be much smaller and statistically insignificant after theGreat Recession. The findings in the paper shed a light on the puzzle thatJapanese exports do not increase even during weak yen periods. Japaneseexporters do not decrease export prices despite cheaper Japanese currency.Rather, they try to increase earnings by maintaining export prices somewhatstable.

Measuring exchange rate misalignmentsin China, Japan and South Korea This study measures the extent to which the real effectiveexchange rates of China, Japan, and South Korea are misaligned from theirequilibrium values. The equilibrium values are estimated using the behavioralequilibrium exchange rate approach. Economic fundamentals, such as relative terms oftrade, relative price of nontrade to trade goods, real interest ratedifferentials, and trade balance over trade volume, are employed to assess theequilibrium exchange rate from 1990Q1 to 2022Q1. While only two fundamentalvariables are significant for the entire sample period, the coefficient valuesof all four fundamental variables are significant and consistent with economictheories for the subsample period (2003Q1–2022Q1). In addition, the goodness-of-fitis fairly high for the subsample period, although the Great Recession occurredduring this period. The exchange rate misalignments are measured for thesubsample period based on the estimations of the equilibrium exchange rates. TheChinese renminbi was generally less misaligned than the other two currencies. Inthe prerecession period (2003Q1–2008Q3),the South Korean won was overvalued by as much as 21% at the peak, while the other two currencies were undervalued. In contrast, during the recessionperiod (2008Q4–2012Q4), the Japanese yen was substantially overvalued, whereas the Korean won was in the opposite situation. During the post-recession period, the three exchange rates wereless misaligned than before. However, they were all undervalued in 2022Q1, implyingthat they might have been misaligned again as the strong dollar era began.

This research analyzes the panel data of ten-digit level machinery commodities which are exported from China, Japan and South Korea to the US from 2002Q1 to 2012Q4 to determine the impacts of exchange rates on the quantity and price of the exports of the three Asian countries involved. The TSLS estimation results show that a depreciation of the yen by 1% in a quarter leads to 0.47% increase in the Japanese quantity and 0.48% decrease in the Japanese price, resulting in a very slight change in the value of Japan’s exports in the same quarter. Even though it pushes up the Chinese quantity more than it pushes down the Chinese price, its impact on the Chinese export value is negligibly small. In contrast, a 1% depreciation of the yen in a quarter increases the Korean quantity by 0.85% and decreases the Korean price by 0.7% resulting in 0.15% increase in the Korean export value in the same quarter. In addition, it increases the Korean export value in the following quarter by 0.19%. The test for a structural break will be performed after the data coverage is extended to 2017Q4.

This research analyzes the panel data of ten-digitlevel machinery commodities which are exported from China, Japan and SouthKorea to the US from 2002Q1 to 2012Q4 to determine the impacts of exchangerates on the quantity and price of the exports of the three Asian countriesinvolved. The TSLS estimation results show that a depreciation of the yen by 1%in a quarter leads to 0.47% increase in the Japanese quantity and 0.48%decrease in the Japanese price, resulting in a very slight change in the valueof Japan’s exports in the same quarter. Even though it pushes up the Chinesequantity more than it pushes down the Chinese price, its impact on the Chineseexport value is negligibly small. In contrast, a 1% depreciation of the yen ina quarter increases the Korean quantity by 0.85% and decreases the Korean priceby 0.7% resulting in 0.15% increase in the Korean export value in the samequarter. 

This research analyzes the panel data of ten-digit level machinery commodities which are exported from China, Japan and South Korea to the US from 2002Q1 to 2012Q4 to determine the impacts of exchange rates on the quantity and price of the exports of the three Asian countries involved. The TSLS estimation results show that a depreciation of the yen by 1% in a quarter leads to 0.47% increase in the Japanese quantity and 0.48% decrease in the Japanese price, resulting in a very slight change in the value of Japan’s exports in the same quarter. Even though it pushes up the Chinese quantity more than it pushes down the Chinese price, its impact on the Chinese export value is negligibly small. In contrast, a 1% depreciation of the yen in a quarter increases the Korean quantity by 0.85% and decreases the Korean price by 0.7% resulting in 0.15% increase in the Korean export value in the same quarter.