Updated on 2024/04/23

写真a

 
SHAO, Jie
 
Affiliation
Faculty of Commerce, School of Commerce
Job title
Assistant Professor(without tenure)

Research Experience

  • 2023.09
    -
    Now

    Waseda University   Assistant Professor

  • 2021.04
    -
    2023.09

    Waseda University   School of Commerce   Research Associate

Education Background

  • 2018.10
    -
    2023.07

    Waseda University   Graduate School of Commerce   Insurance  

  • 2015.09
    -
    2018.06

    Southwestern University of Finance and Economics   Graduate School of Insurance   Insurance  

    International Insurance Accountancy

  • 2011.09
    -
    2015.06

    Southwestern University of Finance and Economics   School of Insurnace   Insurnace  

    Risk Management

Professional Memberships

  • 2023.07
    -
    Now

    Asia-Pacific Risk and Insurance Association (APRIA)

  • 2021.09
    -
    Now

    The Japanese Society Of Insurance Science (JSIS)

  • 2019.08
    -
    Now

    International Association for Financial Consumers (IAFICO)

Research Areas

  • Commerce   insurance

Research Interests

  • insurance

  • Economics of Insurance

  • Catastrophe Insurance

  • Behavioral Economics

 

Papers

  • イギリスにおける洪水保険システムの進化― 官民パートナーシップの観点から ―

    邵傑, 中出哲

    損害保険研究   85 ( 2 ) 1 - 53  2023.08

    Authorship:Lead author

  • How do floods affect insurance demand? Evidence from flood insurance take-up in Japan

    Jie Shao, Akio Hoshino, Satoshi Nakaide

    International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction   83   103424 - 103424  2022.12  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    This study examines the hypothetical impact of floods on people's flood insurance purchase decisions, and how this impact may differ among people with different socioeconomic, geographic, and financial literacy characteristics. We find a significant yet short-lived (1-year) impact of floods on people's demand for flood insurance at an ecological level (prefectures). Different aspects of flood damage have different impacts on flood insurance take-up, with human casualties having the greatest impact on people's perception of flood risk. We also find that groups with different socioeconomic characteristics, such as age, education, and insurance agent density, react differently to floods concerning insurance purchases. We confirm a positive rela-tionship between objective risk exposure and people's perception of the flood experience. Finally, an analysis of the Financial Literacy Survey demonstrates the impact of three cognitive biases (loss aversion, myopic, herding) on flood insurance take-up. These findings provide empirical evidence for various psychological and behavioral theories, and important policy references for countries aiming to develop flood insurance in the future.

    DOI

    Scopus

    1
    Citation
    (Scopus)
  • Model assessment of public–private partnership flood insurance systems: an empirical study of Japan

    Jie Shao

    The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice   47   79 - 102  2022.01  [Refereed]

    DOI

    Scopus

    3
    Citation
    (Scopus)
  • A Simple Assessment of Flood Risk from Insurance Perspective: Based on Historical Data in Japan

    Jie SHAO

    The Bulletin of the Graduate School of Commerce   ( 91 ) 61 - 78  2021.11  [Refereed]

  • How does the Quantity of Disclosed Information Provided by Insurers Affect Entity Behaviors in Internet Insurance Market?: A Study Based on Tripartite Evolutionary Game Analysis between Government, Insurance Companies and Consumers

    Shao Jie

    International Review of Financial Consumers   4 ( No. 2 Oct 2019 ) 29 - 42  2019.12  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    The emergence of internet insurance provides a new consumption pattern for insurance consumers in the e-commerce era. However, without insurers fulfilling duty of disclosure, consumers’ interests cannot be guaranteed. This paper will analyze the costs and benefits of three parties (i.e. government, insurance companies and consumers) and their strategies regarding information disclosure of insurance products on the internet. Using an evolutionary game model under bounded rationality assumptions, the Nash Equilibrium (NE) and evolutionary stability strategy (ESS) of the system are explored. The results show that (Disclosing, not Regulating, not Complain) is the best ESS and it is consumers’ buying decision not regulation that ultimately compels insurers to disclose enough information. The different current situations in China and Japan are discussed in light of the model, and some measures are suggested to promote the development of internet insurance markets in both countries.

    DOI

  • The Legislation of Cash Value in Life-insurance Contract—Take Beneficiary-involving Rights in Japanese ‘Insurance Law’ for Example

    SHAO, Jie

    Shanghai Insurance   2   44 - 46  2017.02

  • A new path of Crop price risk management—Practice of foreign and domestic innovation of crop price target insurance

    China Insurance   6   58 - 64  2016.06

  • Research on the premium rating method of agricultural weather-indexed insurance—the case of Chengdu rice-drought-indexed insurance

    Shanghai Insurance   ( 4 ) 36 - 41  2016.04

▼display all

Presentations

  • Institutional Analysis of Flood Insurance Market in Japan——Based on Evolutionary Game and Prospect Theory

    Jie Shao

    27th 2023 APRIA 2023 Annual Conference 

    Presentation date: 2023.07

    Event date:
    2023.07
    -
    2023.08
  • GIS-based Probabilistic Depth–damage Curves for Flood Damage Assessment

    Jie Shao

    IAFICO 2023 Global Forum for Financial Consumers 

    Presentation date: 2023.07

    Event date:
    2023.07
     
     
  • Risk Perception and Catastrophe Insurance Demand: An Analysis Based on Evolutionary Game and Prospect Theory

    Jie SHAO

    2022 Global Forum for Financial Consumers “Financial Consumer Protection and Sustainable Development” 

    Presentation date: 2022.08

    Event date:
    2022.08
     
     
  • Research on Factors of Flood Insurance Take-up

    JIE SHAO

    Presentation date: 2021.03

  • How does Information Disclosure Affect Behavior in Internet Insurance Market

    JIE SHAO

    2019 IAFICO Annual Conference Global Forum for Financial Consumers “Reshaping Investment and Financing through Digital Innovation” 

    Presentation date: 2019.08

    Event date:
    2019.08
     
     

Research Projects

  • 日本における確率水深被害曲線と洪水保険料設定への応用

    公益財団法人日本法制学会  財政・金融・金融法制研究基金研究助成金

    Project Year :

    2022.03
    -
    2023.05
     

    邵傑

  • イギリスの洪水保険制度の研究―巨大災害リスクに対する民間保険と政府の関係―

    公益財団法人損害保険事業総合研究所  損害保険研究費助成

    Project Year :

    2020.10
    -
    2021.10
     

    中出哲

 

Syllabus

 

Internal Special Research Projects

  • Institutional Analysis of Flood Insurance Market in Japan: Based on Evolu-tionary Game and Prospect Theory

    2023  

     View Summary

    With global warming on its way, weather-related losses increased dramatically in the past few decades, yet there has been a large protection gap widely observed in the insurance market globally. Why cannot insurance cover weather-related losses? This research will try to tackle this disequilibrium of the flood insurance market in Japan, under the analytical framework of Evolutionary Game Theory, which to my best knowledge, has not been widely used in insurance economics. The game structure allows us to analyze the interaction (i.e., payoffs) among three main agents: property owners, insurers and the government. To make the theoretical analysis more intuitive and closer to the practical reality, Prospect Theory will be introduced into the game model. By comparing different reference points, the influence of consumers’ risk perception/appetite and the contents of insurance policies will be investigated. Then the theoretical results will be further explained through a web-based experiment and a numerical simulation. The results of this research will be discussed under institutional analysis so that some suggestions will be provided for the construction towards a ‘better’ arrangement of flood insurance not only for Japan but also for any country in need. The contents are organized in the following sequence: The first step is a review of the current market state and literature regarding economic analysis of catastrophe insurance market. In this phase, some interviews with practitioners in insurance companies and scholars in this field are necessary for a more accurate and holistic understanding. The second step is static bipartite game analysis in one period. The game model includes two participants, the property owners and insurance companies. The focus is the modelling of the market status, as well as a preliminary analysis of the factors influencing market equilibrium. The necessity of a muti-period dynamic analysis is clarified.The third step is evolutionary game analysis in multiple periods. Prospect Theory is introduced into the game model. Different reference points (no insurance, partially and fully insured; default and optional flood coverage as reference points) are tested under the game structure. The fourth step, introduce government intervention into the model. After analyzing the feasibility of intervention from the public sector. Modelling some representative public financial ways (such as public insurance pool, public-backed reinsurance etc.) of intervention into the evolutionary game model. The fifth step is focused on quantitative empirical proofs of the theoretical analysis. A web-based experiment is conducted mainly for the test of reference points in Prospect Theory. Then, the observed numeric relationship is further used for a simulation with Taylor expansion and Ito-type stochastic differential equation, to test the effect of different public interventions. In the final sixth step, the results are shared in several conferences and revised based on the received feedback. The main expected outputs would be presentations at international conferences and 2~3 papers published in top journals in the insurance sector. 

  • 日本における確率水深被害曲線と洪水保険料設定への応用

    2022  

     View Summary

    With increasing greenhouse gas emissionsand urbanization (the heat island effect), floods have been accounting for alarger part of economic losses globally. The importance of insurance privateinsurance sector in participating in flood risk management increasesaccordingly. In this research, we modify the most common and internationallyaccepted method of assessing building damage due to flooding, i.e., depth–damagecurves (DDCs) into probabilistic depth–damage curves (PDDCs). Based on the generatedPDDCs, we model the premiums of flood insurance using the Great Tokyo Area asan applied example. Finally, we also quantify the impact of greenhouse gasemission scenarios on individual and aggregate losses and premiums.The outputs of this project include: Firstly,a high-resolution (50m) flood map contains the spatial distribution of waterstages. Secondly, a function between flood depth and probability of damage overcertain thresholds, i.e., probabilistic depth–damage curves (PDDCs). Thirdly,premium rating models using PDDCs. And finally, the impact of climate change oninsurance premiums.The results were submitted to APRIA 2022 annualconference, and the further revised version will be presented at IAFICO 2023 annualconference.