Updated on 2022/08/11

写真a

 
TANOUE, Yuta
 
Affiliation
Faculty of Commerce, Institute for Business and Finance
Job title
Assistant Professor(without tenure)

Concurrent Post

  • Faculty of Commerce   Graduate School of Business and Finance

Education

  • 2012.04
    -
    2017.03

    The Graduate University for Advanced Studies   School of Multidisciplinary Sciences   Department of Statistical Science  

  • 2008.04
    -
    2012.03

    Waseda University   School of Commerce  

Degree

  • 総合研究大学院大学   統計科学

Research Experience

  • 2018.09
    -
    Now

    早稲田大学   ビジネス・ファイナンス研究センター   助教(任期あり)

  • 2017.04
    -
    2018.08

    The Institute of Statistical Mathematics

  • 2014.04
    -
    2017.03

    日本学術振興会   特別研究員

Professional Memberships

  •  
     
     

    日本金融・証券計量・工学学会

  •  
     
     

    THE JAPAN STATISTICAL SOCIETY

 

Research Areas

  • Money and finance   信用リスク

Research Interests

  • 統計科学

  • 信用リスク

Papers

  • デフォルト企業の正常復帰に関する要因分析と正常復帰確率推定モデル

    田上悠太, 山下智志

    統計数理   63 ( 1 ) 145 - 161  2015.06  [Refereed]

  • Changes in Health Care Access during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Estimates of National Japanese Data, June 2020–October 2021

    Yuta Tanoue, Cyrus Ghaznavi, Takayuki Kawashima, Akifumi Eguchi, Daisuke Yoneoka, Shuhei Nomura

    International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health   19 ( 14 ) 8810 - 8810  2022.07

     View Summary

    The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted health care access around the world, both for inpatients and outpatients. We applied a quasi-Poisson regression to national, monthly data on the number of outpatients, number of inpatients, length of average hospital stay, and the number of new hospitalizations from March 2015 to October 2021 to assess how these outcomes changed between June 2020 to October 2021. The number of outpatient visits were lower-than-predicted during the early phases of the pandemic but normalized by the fall of 2021. The number of inpatients and new hospitalizations were lower-than-predicted throughout the pandemic, and deficits in reporting continued to be observed in late 2021. The length of hospital stays was within the predicted range for all beds, but when stratified by bed type, was higher than predicted for psychiatric beds, lower-than-predicted for tuberculosis beds, and showed variable changes in long-term care insurance beds. Health care access in Japan was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    DOI

  • Decreased incidence followed by comeback of pediatric infections during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan.

    Cyrus Ghaznavi, Haruka Sakamoto, Takayuki Kawashima, Sayaka Horiuchi, Masahiro Ishikane, Sarah Krull Abe, Daisuke Yoneoka, Akifumi Eguchi, Yuta Tanoue, Masahiro Hashizume, Shuhei Nomura

    World journal of pediatrics : WJP    2022.05  [International journal]

    DOI PubMed

  • Changes in marriage, divorce and births during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan.

    Cyrus Ghaznavi, Takayuki Kawashima, Yuta Tanoue, Daisuke Yoneoka, Koji Makiyama, Haruka Sakamoto, Peter Ueda, Akifumi Eguchi, Shuhei Nomura

    BMJ global health   7 ( 5 )  2022.05  [International journal]

     View Summary

    INTRODUCTION: Marriage, divorce and fertility are declining in Japan. There is concern that the COVID-19 pandemic may have accelerated the decrease in marriages and births while increasing the number of divorces. Changes in partnership behaviours and fertility have significant implications for mental health, well-being and population demographics. METHODS: Japanese vital statistical data were collected for December 2011-May 2021. We used the Farrington algorithm on the daily numbers of marriages, divorces and births (per month) in order to determine whether any given month between January 2017 and May 2021 had a significant excess or deficit. Analyses were conducted at the national and regional levels. RESULTS: During the pandemic, significant deficits in the national number of marriages were noted in January 2020, April 2020, May 2020, July 2020, September 2020 and April 2021. Regional marriage patterns reflected national trends. Divorces were noted to be in deficit during April 2020, May 2020 and May 2021 at the country level. Regional analyses mirrored national divorce trends with the exception of Shikoku, which showed no deficits during the pandemic. Significant deficits in the number of total births were noted in December 2020, January 2021 and February 2021. Regionally, birth deficits were concentrated in Chubu, Kansai and Kanto. After the start of the pandemic, no significant excesses in marriages, divorces or births were noted at the national or regional level. CONCLUSIONS: Marriages and divorces declined during the pandemic in Japan, especially during state of emergency declarations. There were decreased births between December 2020 and February 2021, approximately 8-10 months after the first state of emergency, suggesting that couples altered their pregnancy intention in response to the pandemic. Metropolitan regions were more affected by the pandemic than their less metropolitan counterparts.

    DOI PubMed

  • Pre- and post-COVID-19 all-cause mortality of Japanese citizens versus foreign residents living in Japan, 2015–2021

    Cyrus Ghaznavi, Akifumi Eguchi, Yuta Tanoue, Daisuke Yoneoka, Takayuki Kawashima, Motoi Suzuki, Masahiro Hashizume, Shuhei Nomura

    SSM - Population Health     101114 - 101114  2022.05

    DOI

  • Recent changes in the reporting of STIs in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Cyrus Ghaznavi, Yuta Tanoue, Takayuki Kawashima, Akifumi Eguchi, Daisuke Yoneoka, Haruka Sakamoto, Peter Ueda, Masahiro Ishikane, Naokatsu Ando, Yusuke Miyazato, Shuhei Nomura

    Sexually transmitted infections    2022.04  [International journal]

     View Summary

    OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic has had variable effects on the rates of STIs reported across the globe. This study sought to assess how the number of STI reports changed during the pandemic in Japan. METHODS: We used national infectious disease surveillance data from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (Tokyo, Japan) for the period between January 2013 and December 2021. We compared reported rates of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, condyloma acuminata and genital herpes, as well as total notifications for HIV/AIDS and syphilis during the pandemic versus previous years in Japan. We used a quasi-Poisson regression to determine whether any given week or month between January 2018 and December 2021 had a significant excess or deficit of STIs. Notification values above or below the 95% upper and lower prediction thresholds were considered as statistically significant. The start of the pandemic was defined as January 2020. RESULTS: Chlamydia generally remained within predicted range during the pandemic period. Reporting of gonorrhoea was significantly higher than expected throughout early-to-mid 2021 but otherwise generally remained within predicted range prior to 2021. Condyloma, herpes and HIV/AIDS reporting were transiently significantly lower than expected throughout the pandemic period, but no significant periods of higher-than-expected reporting were detected. Syphilis showed widespread evidence of significantly lower-than-predicted reporting throughout 2020 but eventually reversed, showing significantly higher-than-predicted reporting in mid-to-late 2021. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with variable changes in the reporting of STIs in Japan. Higher-than-predicted reporting was more likely to be observed in the later phases of the pandemic. These changes may have been attributable to pandemic-related changes in sexual behaviour and decreased STI clinic attendance and testing, but further research on the long-term impact of the pandemic on STIs is necessary.

    DOI PubMed

  • Inter-Prefectural Travel and Network Connectedness During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

    Cyrus Ghaznavi, Daisuke Yoneoka, Yuta Tanoue, Stuart Gilmour, Takayuki Kawashima, Akifumi Eguchi, Yumi Kawamura, Hiroaki Miyata, Shuhei Nomura

    Journal of Epidemiology    2022

    DOI

  • Identification of optimum combinations of media channels for approaching COVID-19 vaccine unsure and unwilling groups in Japan

    Daisuke Yoneoka, Akifumi Eguchi, Shuhei Nomura, Takayuki Kawashima, Yuta Tanoue, Michio Murakami, Haruka Sakamoto, Keiko Maruyama-Sakurai, Stuart Gilmour, Shoi Shi, Hiroyuki Kunishima, Satoshi Kaneko, Megumi Adachi, Koki Shimada, Yoshiko Yamamoto, Hiroaki Miyata

    The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific   18   100330 - 100330  2022.01

    DOI

  • Impact of domestic travel restrictions on transmission of COVID-19 infection using public transportation network approach

    Yayoi Murano, Ryo Ueno, Shoi Shi, Takayuki Kawashima, Yuta Tanoue, Shiori Tanaka, Shuhei Nomura, Hiromichi Shoji, Toshiaki Shimizu, Huy Nguyen, Hiroaki Miyata, Stuart Gilmour, Daisuke Yoneoka

    Scientific Reports   11 ( 1 )  2021.12

     View Summary

    <title>Abstract</title>The international spread of COVID-19 infection has attracted global attention, but the impact of local or domestic travel restriction on public transportation network remains unclear. Passenger volume data for the domestic public transportation network in Japan and the time at which the first confirmed COVID-19 case was observed in each prefecture were extracted from public data sources. A survival approach in which a hazard was modeled as a function of the closeness centrality on the network was utilized to estimate the risk of importation of COVID-19 in each prefecture. A total of 46 prefectures with imported cases were identified. Hypothetical scenario analyses indicated that both strategies of locking down the metropolitan areas and restricting domestic airline travel would be equally effective in reducing the risk of importation of COVID-19. While caution is necessary that the data were limited to June 2020 when the pandemic was in its initial stage and that no other virus spreading routes have been considered, domestic travel restrictions were effective to prevent the spread of COVID-19 on public transportation network in Japan. Instead of lockdown that might seriously damage the economy, milder travel restrictions could have the similar impact on controlling the domestic transmission of COVID-19.

    DOI

  • Geographically weighted generalized Farrington algorithm for rapid outbreak detection over short data accumulation periods

    Daisuke Yoneoka, Takayuki Kawashima, Koji Makiyama, Yuta Tanoue, Shuhei Nomura, Akifumi Eguchi

    Statistics in Medicine    2021.09

    DOI

  • Reasons for being unsure or unwilling regarding intention to take COVID-19 vaccine among Japanese people: A large cross-sectional national survey

    Shuhei Nomura, Akifumi Eguchi, Daisuke Yoneoka, Takayuki Kawashima, Yuta Tanoue, Michio Murakami, Haruka Sakamoto, Keiko Maruyama-Sakurai, Stuart Gilmour, Shoi Shi, Hiroyuki Kunishima, Satoshi Kaneko, Megumi Adachi, Koki Shimada, Yoshiko Yamamoto, Hiroaki Miyata

    The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific   14   100223 - 100223  2021.09

    DOI

  • Mobility Patterns in Different Age Groups in Japan during the COVID-19 Pandemic: a Small Area Time Series Analysis through March 2021

    Shuhei Nomura, Yuta Tanoue, Daisuke Yoneoka, Stuart Gilmour, Takayuki Kawashima, Akifumi Eguchi, Hiroaki Miyata

    Journal of Urban Health    2021.08

     View Summary

    <title>Abstract</title>In the COVID-19 era, movement restrictions are crucial to slow virus transmission and have been implemented in most parts of the world, including Japan. To find new insights on human mobility and movement restrictions encouraged (but not forced) by the emergency declaration in Japan, we analyzed mobility data at 35 major stations and downtown areas in Japan—each defined as an area overlaid by several 125-meter grids—from September 1, 2019 to March 19, 2021. Data on the total number of unique individuals per hour passing through each area were obtained from Yahoo Japan Corporation (i.e., more than 13,500 data points for each area). We examined the temporal trend in the ratio of the rolling seven-day daily average of the total population to a baseline on January 16, 2020, by ten-year age groups in five time frames. We demonstrated that the degree and trend of mobility decline after the declaration of a state of emergency varies across age groups and even at the subregional level. We demonstrated that monitoring dynamic geographic and temporal mobility information stratified by detailed population characteristics can help guide not only exit strategies from an ongoing emergency declaration, but also initial response strategies before the next possible resurgence. Combining such detailed data with data on vaccination coverage and COVID-19 incidence (including the status of the health care delivery system) can help governments and local authorities develop community-specific mobility restriction policies. This could include strengthening incentives to stay home and raising awareness of cognitive errors that weaken people's resolve to refrain from nonessential movement.

    DOI

  • Suicide by gender and 10-year age groups during the COVID-19 pandemic vs previous five years in Japan: an analysis of national vital statistics

    Akifumi Eguchi, Shuhei Nomura, Stuart Gilmour, Nahoko Harada, Haruka Sakamoto, Peter Ueda, Daisuke Yoneoka, Yuta Tanoue, Takayuki Kawashima, Takehiko I. Hayashi, Yuzo Arima, Motoi Suzuki, Masahiro Hashizume

    Psychiatry Research     114173 - 114173  2021.08

    DOI

  • Effect of emergency declaration on mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: A social network service-based difference-in-differences approach

    Akifumi Eguchi, Daisuke Yoneoka, Shoi Shi, Yuta Tanoue, Takayuki Kawashima, Shuhei Nomura, Koji Makiyama, Shinya Uryu, Masayuki Sawada, Yumi Kawamura, Shinichi Takayanagi, Stuart Gilmour, Hiroaki Miyata

    Science Progress   104 ( 3 ) 003685042110297 - 003685042110297  2021.07

     View Summary

    Strong lockdowns to control COVID-19 pandemic have been enforced globally and strongly restricted social activities with consequent negative effects on mental health. Japan has effectively implemented a unique voluntary policy to control COVID-19, but the mental health impact of the policy has not been examined on a large scale. In this study, we examined the effect of the first declaration on the mental health of affected residents. We used population-level questionnaire data of 17,400 people living under the state of emergency and 9208 who were not through a social-networking-service app and applied a difference-in-differences regression model to estimate the causal effect of the declaration of the state of emergency on psychological wellbeing, stratified by job category. No statistically significant effect of the declaration was observed among all job categories. This suggests that residents’ psychological situation has gradually changed, possibly influenced by other factors such as the surrounding environment, rather than the declaration itself. Given that Japan has a unique policy to control COVID-19 instead of a strict lockdown, our results showed the Japanese-style policy may serve as a form of harm reduction strategy, to control the epidemic with minimal psychological harm, and enable a policy that balances disease control and mental health. Caution is necessary that this study used self-reported data from a limited time period before and after the first declaration in April 2020.

    DOI

  • Trends in emergency transportation due to heat illness under the new normal lifestyle in the COVID-19 era, in Japan and 47 prefectures.

    Shinya Uryu, Yuta Tanoue, Shuhei Nomura, Kentaro Matsuura, Koji Makiyama, Takayuki Kawashima, Daisuke Yoneoka, Akifumi Eguchi, Yumi Kawamura, Stuart Gilmour, Haruka Sakamoto, Kazuki Shimizu, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Masahiro Hashizume

    The Science of the total environment   768   144723 - 144723  2021.05  [International journal]

     View Summary

    In Japan, in response to the spread of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19), a 'new normal' in the era of the COVID-19 was proposed by the government, which calls for thorough wearing of masks as an infection control measure in the era of the COVID-19, but related heat illness has been a great concern this summer. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models to the daily number of emergency transportations due to heat illness from 2008 to 2020 from the Fire and Disaster Management Agency, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan, to estimate the expected weekly number of emergency transportations from heat illness, with adjustment for their long-term trend and the weather conditions, including temperatures. We found that, at the national level, the number of heat illness emergency transports did not significantly increase or decrease from the annual trend in 2020. By prefecture, on the other hand, there were some prefectures in which the number of heat illness emergency transports was less than the average year, and most of them were in the week of August 10-16. By age group, the number of heat illness emergency transports in the 0-17 and 18-64 age groups was particularly low in some prefectures, and by severity, those in mild cases was particularly low. A caution is necessary that there is a possibility that a decrease in cases possibly associated with COVID-19 measures, such as, outdoor activity restrictions at schools/universities and cancellation of public events, may offset the possible increase in heat illness cases occurring elsewhere associated with wearing masks. Given that the end of the COVID-19 pandemic is not expected yet, continuous and appropriate awareness-raising activities to prevent heat-related illness remain important.

    DOI PubMed

  • Trends in suicide in Japan by gender during the COVID-19 pandemic, through December 2020

    Shuhei Nomura, Takayuki Kawashima, Nahoko Harada, Daisuke Yoneoka, Yuta Tanoue, Akifumi Eguchi, Stuart Gilmour, Yumi Kawamura, Masahiro Hashizume

    Psychiatry Research     113913 - 113913  2021.04

    DOI

  • Trends in Healthcare Access in Japan during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic, up to June 2020

    Koji Makiyama, Takayuki Kawashima, Shuhei Nomura, Akifumi Eguchi, Daisuke Yoneoka, Yuta Tanoue, Yumi Kawamura, Haruka Sakamoto, Stuart Gilmour, Shoi Shi, Kentaro Matsuura, Shinya Uryu, Masahiro Hashizume

    International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health   18 ( 6 ) 3271 - 3271  2021.03

     View Summary

    We evaluated the impact of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on healthcare access in Japan in terms of the number of outpatients and hospitalized patients as well as the length of hospital stays, during the first wave of the pandemic, up to June 2020. This observational study evaluated the monthly average number of outpatients per day at hospitals, the average number of hospitalized patients per day, and the average length of hospital stays per patient, from December 2010 to June 2020, using the hospital reports data, which are open aggregated data on the utilization of hospitals from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. These numbers were compared with those from the same period of previous years, using a quasi-Poisson regression model. We found a nationwide decrease in the number of outpatients in general hospitals and hospitalized patients, particularly in long-term care beds in Japan, as well as the excess length of hospital stays among psychiatric care patients during the first wave of the COVID-19. This limited access to healthcare demonstrated the importance of the long-term health monitoring of vulnerable populations and the need for urgent management support to healthcare facilities in preparation for possible prolonged pandemics in the future.

    DOI

  • Excess All-Cause Deaths during Coronavirus Disease Pandemic, Japan, January-May 20201.

    Takayuki Kawashima, Shuhei Nomura, Yuta Tanoue, Daisuke Yoneoka, Akifumi Eguchi, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Kentaro Matsuura, Shoi Shi, Koji Makiyama, Shinya Uryu, Yumi Kawamura, Shinichi Takayanagi, Stuart Gilmour, Hiroaki Miyata, Tomimasa Sunagawa, Takuri Takahashi, Yuuki Tsuchihashi, Yusuke Kobayashi, Yuzo Arima, Kazuhiko Kanou, Motoi Suzuki, Masahiro Hashizume

    Emerging infectious diseases   27 ( 3 ) 789 - 795  2021.03  [International journal]

     View Summary

    To provide insight into the mortality burden of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, we estimated the excess all-cause deaths for each week during the pandemic, January-May 2020, by prefecture and age group. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models to vital statistics data. Excess deaths were expressed as the range of differences between the observed and expected number of all-cause deaths and the 95% upper bound of the 1-sided prediction interval. A total of 208-4,322 all-cause excess deaths at the national level indicated a 0.03%-0.72% excess in the observed number of deaths. Prefecture and age structure consistency between the reported COVID-19 deaths and our estimates was weak, suggesting the need to use cause-specific analyses to distinguish between direct and indirect consequences of COVID-19.

    DOI PubMed

  • Assessing the regional impact of Japan’s COVID-19 state of emergency declaration: a population-level observational study using social networking services

    Daisuke Yoneoka, Shoi Shi, Shuhei Nomura, Yuta Tanoue, Takayuki Kawashima, Akifumi Eguchi, Kentaro Matsuura, Koji Makiyama, Shinya Uryu, Keisuke Ejima, Haruka Sakamoto, Toshibumi Taniguchi, Hiroyuki Kunishima, Stuart Gilmour, Hiroshi Nishiura, Hiroaki Miyata

    BMJ Open   11 ( 2 ) e042002 - e042002  2021.02

     View Summary

    <sec><title>Objective</title>On 7 April 2020, the Japanese government declared a state of emergency in response to the novel coronavirus outbreak. To estimate the impact of the declaration on regional cities with low numbers of COVID-19 cases, large-scale surveillance to capture the current epidemiological situation of COVID-19 was urgently conducted in this study.

    </sec><sec><title>Design</title>Cohort study.

    </sec><sec><title>Setting</title>Social networking service (SNS)-based online survey conducted in five prefectures of Japan: Tottori, Kagawa, Shimane, Tokushima and Okayama.

    </sec><sec><title>Participants</title>127 121 participants from the five prefectures surveyed between 24 March and 5 May 2020.

    </sec><sec><title>Interventions</title>An SNS-based healthcare system named COOPERA (COvid-19: Operation for Personalized Empowerment to Render smart prevention And care seeking) was launched. It asks questions regarding postcode, personal information, preventive actions, and current and past symptoms related to COVID-19.

    </sec><sec><title>Primary and secondary outcome measures</title>Empirical Bayes estimates of age-sex-standardised incidence rate (EBSIR) of symptoms and the spatial correlation between the number of those who reported having symptoms and the number of COVID-19 cases were examined to identify the geographical distribution of symptoms in the five prefectures.

    </sec><sec><title>Results</title>97.8% of participants had no subjective symptoms. We identified several geographical clusters of fever with significant spatial correlation (r=0.67) with the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, especially in the urban centres of prefectural capital cities.

    </sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title>Given that there are still several high-risk areas measured by EBSIR, careful discussion on which areas should be reopened at the end of the state of emergency is urgently required using real-time SNS system to monitor the nationwide epidemic.

    </sec>

    DOI

  • Association between Daily Living Walking Speed and Lifestyle and Physiological Factors in Older, Female Pok&#233;mon GO Players

    Shuhei Nomura, Akifumi Eguchi, Daisuke Yoneoka, Takayuki Kawashima, Norimichi Hirahara, Yuta Tanoue, Stuart Gilmour, Hisateru Tachimori, Hiroaki Miyata

    Health   13 ( 05 ) 564 - 573  2021

    DOI

  • Trends in suicide in Japan by gender during the COVID-19 pandemic, up to September 2020

    Shuhei Nomura, Takayuki Kawashima, Daisuke Yoneoka, Yuta Tanoue, Akifumi Eguchi, Stuart Gilmour, Yumi Kawamura, Nahoko Harada, Masahiro Hashizume

    Psychiatry Research   295   113622 - 113622  2021.01

    DOI

  • Trends in deaths from road injuries during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, January to September 2020

    Shuhei Nomura, Takayuki Kawashima, Daisuke Yoneoka, Yuta Tanoue, Akifumi Eguchi, Stuart Gilmour, Masahiro Hashizume

    Injury Epidemiology   7 ( 1 )  2020.12

     View Summary

    <title>Abstract</title><sec>
    <title>Background</title>
    In Japan, the latest estimates of excess all-cause deaths through January to July 2020 showed that the overall (direct and indirect) mortality burden from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan was relatively low compared to Europe and the United States. However, consistency between the reported number of COVID-19 deaths and excess all-cause deaths was limited across prefectures, suggesting the necessity of distinguishing the direct and indirect consequences of COVID-19 by cause-specific analysis. To examine whether deaths from road injuries decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, consistent with a possible reduction of road transport activity connected to Japan’s state of emergency declaration, we estimated the exiguous deaths from road injuries in each week from January to September 2020 by 47 prefectures.


    </sec><sec>
    <title>Methods</title>
    To estimate the expected weekly number of deaths from road injuries, a quasi-Poisson regression was applied to daily traffic fatalities data obtained from Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis, Japan. We set two thresholds, point estimate and lower bound of the two-sided 95% prediction interval, for exiguous deaths, and report the range of differences between the observed number of deaths and each of these thresholds as exiguous deaths.


    </sec><sec>
    <title>Results</title>
    Since January 2020, in a few weeks the observed deaths from road injuries fell below the 95% lower bound, such as April 6–12 (exiguous deaths 5–21, percent deficit 2.82–38.14), May 4–10 (8–23, 21.05–43.01), July 20–26 (12–29, 30.77–51.53), and August 3–9 (3–20, 7.32–34.41). However, those less than the 95% lower bound were also observed in weeks in the previous years.


    </sec><sec>
    <title>Conclusions</title>
    The number of road traffic fatalities during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan has decreased slightly, but not significantly, in several weeks compared with the average year. This suggests that the relatively small changes in excess all-cause mortality observed in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic could not be explained simply by an offsetting reduction in traffic deaths. Considering a variety of other indirect effects, evaluating an independent, unbiased measure of COVID-19-related mortality burden could provide insight into the design of future broad-based infectious disease counter-measures and offer lessons to other countries.


    </sec>

    DOI

  • Large-scale epidemiological monitoring of the COVID-19 epidemic in Tokyo

    Daisuke Yoneoka, Yuta Tanoue, Takayuki Kawashima, Shuhei Nomura, Shoi Shi, Akifumi Eguchi, Keisuke Ejima, Toshibumi Taniguchi, Haruka Sakamoto, Hiroyuki Kunishima, Stuart Gilmour, Hiroshi Nishiura, Hiroaki Miyata

    The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific   3   100016 - 100016  2020.10  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    Background: On April 7, 2020, the Japanese government declared a state of emergency regarding the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Given the nation-wide spread of the coronavirus in major Japanese cities and the rapid increase in the number of cases with untraceable infection routes, large-scale monitoring for capturing the current epidemiological situation of COVID-19 in Japan is urgently required. Methods: A chatbot-based healthcare system named COOPERA (COvid-19: Operation for Personalized Empowerment to Render smart prevention And AN care seeking) was developed to surveil the Japanese epidemiological situation in real-time. COOPERA asked questions regarding personal information, location, preventive actions, COVID-19 related symptoms and their residence. Empirical Bayes estimates of the age-sex-standardized incidence rate and disease mapping approach using scan statistics were utilized to identify the geographical distribution of the symptoms in Tokyo and their spatial correlation r with the identified COVID-19 cases. Findings: We analyzed 353,010 participants from Tokyo recruited from 27th March to 6th April 2020. The mean (SD) age of participants was 42.7 (12.3), and 63.4%, 36.4% or 0.2% were female, male, or others, respectively. 95.6% of participants had no subjective symptoms. We identified several geographical clusters with high spatial correlation (r = 0.9), especially in downtown areas in central Tokyo such as Shibuya and Shinjuku. Interpretation: With the global spread of COVID-19, medical resources are being depleted. A new system to monitor the epidemiological situation, COOPERA, can provide insights to assist political decision to tackle the epidemic. In addition, given that Japan has not had a strong lockdown policy to weaken the spread of the infection, our result would be useful for preparing for the second wave in other countries during the next flu season without a strong lockdown. Funding: The present work was supported in part by a grant from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan (H29-Gantaisaku-ippan-009).

    DOI

  • Trend change of the transmission route of COVID-19–related symptoms in Japan

    A. Eguchi, D. Yoneoka, S. Shi, Y. Tanoue, T. Kawashima, S. Nomura, K. Matsuura, K. Makiyama, K. Ejima, S. Gilmour, H. Nishiura, H. Miyata

    Public Health   187   157 - 160  2020.10  [Refereed]  [International journal]

     View Summary

    OBJECTIVES: The Japanese prime minister declared a state of emergency on April 7 2020 to combat the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This declaration was unique in the sense that it was essentially driven by the voluntary restraint of the residents. We examined the change of the infection route by investigating contact experiences with COVID-19-positive cases. STUDY DESIGN: This study is a population-level questionnaire-based study using a social networking service (SNS). METHODS: To assess the impact of the declaration, this study used population-level questionnaire data collected from an SNS with 121,375 respondents (between March 27 and May 5) to assess the change in transmission routes over the study period, which was measured by investigating the association between COVID-19-related symptoms and (self-reported) contact with COVID-19-infected individuals. RESULTS: The results of this study show that the declaration prevented infections in the workplace, but increased domestic infections as people stayed at home. However, after April 24, workplace infections started to increase again, driven by the increase in community-acquired infections. CONCLUSIONS: While careful interpretation is necessary because our data are self-reported from voluntary SNS users, these findings indicate the impact of the declaration on the change in transmission routes of COVID-19 over time in Japan.

    DOI PubMed

  • Mental health of family, friends, and co-workers of COVID-19 patients in Japan

    Yuta Tanoue, Shuhei Nomura, Daisuke Yoneoka, Takayuki Kawashima, Akifumi Eguchi, Shoi Shi, Nahoko Harada, Hiroaki Miyata

    Psychiatry Research   291   113067 - 113067  2020.09  [Refereed]  [International journal]

     View Summary

    As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic rages on, the mental health of both the infected and non-infected is a rising concern. We used administrative survey data (16402 responses in the last two weeks) using a chatbot on LINE, the most popular social networking service (SNS) in Japan, to show that people with COVID-19 patients in a close setting had higher psychological distress level than those without. We believe that the results indicate an urgent need to prioritize the establishment and implementation of mental health and psychosocial support tailored to family, close relatives, and friends of COVID-19 patients.

    DOI PubMed

  • Early SNS-Based Monitoring System for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Japan: A Population-Level Observational Study

    Daisuke Yoneoka, Takayuki Kawashima, Yuta Tanoue, Shuhei Nomura, Keisuke Ejima, Shoi Shi, Akifumi Eguchi, Toshibumi Taniguchi, Haruka Sakamoto, Hiroyuki Kunishima, Stuart Gilmour, Hiroshi Nishiura, Hiroaki Miyata

    Journal of Epidemiology   30 ( 8 ) 362 - 370  2020.08  [Refereed]

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    Background: The World Health Organization declared the novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) to be a pandemic on March 11. 2020. Large-scale monitoring for capturing the current epidemiological situation of COVID-19 in Japan would improve preparation for and prevention of a massive outbreak.Methods: A chatbot-based healthcare system named COOPERA (COvid-19: Operation for Personalized Empowerment to Render smart prevention And care seeking) was developed using the LINE app to evaluate the current Japanese epidemiological situation. LINE users could participate in the system either though a QR code page in the prefectures' websites or a banner at the top of the LINE app screen. COOPERA asked participants questions regarding personal information, preventive actions, and non-specific symptoms related to COVID-19 and their duration. We calculated daily cross correlation functions between the reported number of infected cases confirmed using polymerase chain reaction and the symptom-positive group captured by COOPERA.Results: We analyzed 206,218 participants from three prefectures reported between March 5 and 30, 2020. The mean age of participants was 44.2 (standard deviation, 13.2) years. No symptoms were reported by 96.93% of participants, but there was a significantly positive correlation between the reported number of COVID-19 cases and self-reported fevers, suggesting that massive monitoring of fever might help to estimate the scale of the COVID-19 epidemic in real time.Conclusions: COOPERA is the first real-time system being used to monitor trends in COVID-19 in Japan and provides useful insights to assist political decisions to tackle the epidemic.

    DOI

  • Travel restrictions and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: an effective distance approach to estimate impact

    Shoi Shi, Shiori Tanaka, Ryo Ueno, Stuart Gilmour, Yuta Tanoue, Takayuki Kawashima, Shuhei Nomura, Akifumi Eguchi, Hiroaki Miyata, Daisuke Yoneoka

    Bulletin of the World Health Organization   98 ( 8 ) 518 - 529  2020.08  [Refereed]

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    Objective To estimate the effect of airline travel restrictions on the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) importation.Methods We extracted passenger volume data for the entire global airline network, as well as the dates of the implementation of travel restrictions and the observation of the first case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in each country or territory, from publicly available sources. We calculated effective distance between every airport and the city of Wuhan, China. We modelled the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation by estimating survival probability, expressing median time of importation as a function of effective distance. We calculated the relative change in importation risk under three different hypothetical scenarios that all resulted in different passenger volumes.Findings We identified 28 countries with imported cases of COVID-19 as at 26 February 2020. The arrival time of the virus at these countries ranged from 39 to 80 days since identification of the first case in Wuhan. Our analysis of relative change in risk indicated that strategies of reducing global passenger volume and imposing travel restrictions at a further 10 hub airports would be equally effective in reducing the risk of importation of SARS-CoV-2; however, this reduction is very limited with a close-to-zero median relative change in risk.Conclusion The hypothetical variations in observed travel restrictions were not sufficient to prevent the global spread of SARS-CoV-2; further research should also consider travel by land and sea. Our study highlights the importance of strengthening local capacities for disease monitoring and control.

    DOI

  • An assessment of self-reported COVID-19 related symptoms of 227,898 users of a social networking service in Japan: Has the regional risk changed after the declaration of the state of emergency?

    Shuhei Nomura, Daisuke Yoneoka, Shoi Shi, Yuta Tanoue, Takayuki Kawashima, Akifumi Eguchi, Kentaro Matsuura, Koji Makiyama, Keisuke Ejima, Toshibumi Taniguchi, Haruka Sakamoto, Hiroyuki Kunishima, Stuart Gilmour, Hiroshi Nishiura, Hiroaki Miyata

    The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific   1   100011 - 100011  2020.08  [Refereed]

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    Background: In the absence of widespread testing, symptomatic monitoring efforts may allow for understanding the epidemiological situation of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan. We obtained data from a social networking service (SNS) messaging application that monitors self-reported COVID-19 related symptoms in real time in Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan. We aimed at not only understanding the epidemiological situation of COVID-19 in the prefecture, but also highlighting the usefulness of symptomatic monitoring approaches that rely on self-reporting using SNS during a pandemic, and informing the assessment of Japan's emergency declaration over COVID-19.Methods: We analysed symptoms data (fever over 37.5 degrees and a strong feeling of weariness or shortness of breath), reported voluntarily via SNS chatbot by 227,898 residents of Fukuoka Prefecture during March 27 to May 3, 2020, including April 7, when a state of emergency was declared. We estimated the spatial correlation coefficient between the number of the self-reported cases of COVID-19 related symptoms and the number of PCR confirmed COVID-19 cases in the period (obtained from the prefecture website); and estimated the empirical Bayes age- and sex-standardised incidence ratio (EBSIR) of the symptoms in the period, compared before and after the declaration. The number of symptom cases was weighted by age and sex to reflect the regional population distribution according to the 2015 national census.Findings: Of the participants, 3.47% reported symptoms. There was a strong spatial correlation of 0.847 (p < 0.001) at municipality level between the weighted number of self-reported symptoms and the number of COVID-19 cases for both symptoms. The EBSIR at post-code level was not likely to change remarkably before and after the declaration of the emergency, but the gap in EBSIR between high-risk and low-risk areas appeared to have increased after the declaration.Interpretation: While caution is necessary as the data was limited to SNS users, the self-reported COVID-19 related symptoms considered in the study had high epidemiological evaluation ability. In addition, though based on visual assessment, after the declaration of the emergency, regional containment of the infection risk might have strengthened to some extent. SNS, which can provide a high level of real-time, voluntary symptom data collection, can be used to assess the epidemiology of a pandemic, as well as to assist in policy assessments such as emergency declarations. (C) 2020 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

    DOI

  • Time to Reconsider Diverse Ways of Working in Japan to Promote Social Distancing Measures against the COVID-19

    Shuhei Nomura, Daisuke Yoneoka, Yuta Tanoue, Takayuki Kawashima, Shoi Shi, Akifumi Eguchi, Hiroaki Miyata

    Journal of Urban Health   97 ( 4 ) 457 - 460  2020.08  [Refereed]

    DOI

  • The relationship between fever rate and telework implementation as a social distancing measure against the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan

    Takayuki Kawashima, Shuhei Nomura, Yuta Tanoue, Daisuke Yoneoka, Akifumi Eguchi, Shoi Shi, Hiroaki Miyata

    Public Health    2020.05  [Refereed]

    DOI

  • Comparison study of two-step LGD estimation model with probability machines

    Yuta Tanoue, Satoshi Yamashita, Hideaki Nagahata

    RISK MANAGEMENT-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL    2020.04  [Refereed]

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    Accurate estimation of loss given default is necessary to estimating credit risk. Due to the bi-modal nature of LGD, the two-step LGD estimation model is a promising method for LGD estimation. This study improves the first model in the two-step LGD estimation model using probability machines (random forest, k-nearest neighbors, bagged nearest neighbors, and support vector machines). Furthermore, we compare the predictive performance of each model with traditional logistic regression models. This study confirms that random forest is the best model for developing the first model in the two-step LGD estimation model.

    DOI

  • Oracle inequalities for sign constrained generalized linear models

    Yuta Koike, Yuta Tanoue

    Econometrics and Statistics   11   145 - 157  2019.07  [Refereed]

    DOI

  • Loss given default estimation: a two-stage model with classification tree-based boosting and support vector logistic regression

    Yuta Tanoue, Satoshi Yamashita

    Journal of Risk   21 ( 4 ) 19 - 37  2019  [Refereed]

    DOI

  • Forecasting loss given default of bank loans with multi-stage model

    Yuta Tanoue, Akihiro Kawada, Satoshi Yamashita

    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING   33 ( 2 ) 513 - 522  2017.04  [Refereed]

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    Probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) are key risk parameters in credit risk management. The majority of LGD research is based on the corporate bond market and few studies focus on the LGD of bank loans even in Japan because of the lack of available public data on bank loan losses. Consequently, knowledge concerning Japanese bank loan LGD is scarce. This study uses Japanese bank loan data to analyze the influencing factors of LGD and to develop a (multi-stage) model to predict LCD and expected loss (EL). We found that collateral, guarantees, and loan size impact LGD. Further, we confirmed that our multi-stage LCD model has superior predictive accuracy than the corresponding OLS model, Tobit model and Inflated beta regression model. (C) 2016 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    DOI

  • When banks venture beyond home turf: consequences for loan performance

    Yuta Tanoue, Satoshi Yamashita

    JOURNAL OF CREDIT RISK   13 ( 3 ) 1 - 19  2017  [Refereed]

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    Depopulation in provincial areas has recently caused a decline in regional economies in Japan. Japanese regional banks have thus been advancing into areas outside their original operational bases, especially into major cities and urban regions. Since lending to areas outside the original operational base is inherently more uncertain (and increasing), such lending behavior is expected to significantly affect the credit risk of regional banks' lending portfolios. In this paper, we analyze the extent to which the lending area (the local region, outside the local region or Tokyo) affects the credit risk of regional banks. By using credit data on five regional banks, we develop credit risk estimation models to analyze the effect of the characteristics of lending area. These analyses indicate that the lending area variables affect credit risk; default is less likely to occur outside the local region and in Tokyo; and the loss given default is smaller in the local region than elsewhere.

    DOI

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Awards

  • 第二回統計数理研究所優秀学生賞

    2017.03   統計数理研究所  

    Winner: 田上悠太

  • 第二回総合研究大学院大学未来科学者賞

    2016.04   総合研究大学院大学  

    Winner: 田上悠太

Specific Research

  • 金融リスク分析のための裾が重い確率分布の性質の研究

    2021  

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    本研究では、Janson(2004)のlocal dependenceを仮定した場合のboundedな確率変数の和の集中不等式の研究の拡張を行い、劣指数型確率変数に関しての結果を得た。具体的には、まず劣指数型確率変数の劣指数ノルムに関しての不等式を導出した。そして、その導出した劣指数ノルムに関しての不等式を用いて、local dependenceを劣指数型確率変数に対して仮定した場合の確率変数の和の集中不等式の導出を行った。さらに、得られたlocal dependenceを仮定した場合の確率変数の和の集中不等式に関しての結果をピアソンのファイという依存性を表す尺度を用いて確率変数間の依存性を記述した場合の結果に拡張した。更に、得られた確率変数の和に関しての集中不等式を用いて、金融ポートフォリオのリスクファクターにlocal dependence、またはピアソンのファイで依存性を記述した場合のポートフォリオ全体のvalue-at-riskの上限の導出を行うための不等式を得た。

  • 依存のある裾が重い確率変数の和の集中不等式に関しての研究

    2020  

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    先行研究のLampertら(2018)、更に申請者が昨年導いた結果は、集中不等式を依存性のある場合に拡張した点は優れているが、以下の問題点がある。1.α混合係数という推定できない量に集中不等式が依存していること、2.上限、下限がある確率変数、ガウス型確率変数のある確率変数のみに対して適用可能である。本研究では、以上の問題を克服した。具体的には、劣ガウス型、劣指数型の確率変数に対して、ピアソンのファイに基づいた依存性のある確率変数の集中不等式の導出を行った。

  • テールリスク計量のための依存のある確率変数の輪の集中不等式に関しての研究

    2019  

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    本研究の目的は、様々な金融リスクの計量化に必要な依存のある確率変数の和の分布の集中不等式の導出である。例えば株のポートフォリオ全体の損失のValue at riskや期待ショートフォールの算出のためには、依存のある確率変数の和の分布の集中不等式の導出が必要となる本研究では先行研究Lampertら(2018)で導かれている依存性のある確率変数の和の集中不等式を拡張した。具体的には、1.集中不等式をよりタイトにした。2.集中不等式を劣ガウス型の確率変数に適用可能なように拡張した。

  • デフォルト時損失率に対して影響を与える要因の分析

    2018  

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    本研究では、デフォルト時損失率(貸出に占める損失の割合)推定モデルの精度向上のための研究を行った。1.景気、マクロ経済変動がデフォルト時損失率に与える影響について研究。日本の銀行貸出債権のデータを用いてデフォルト時損失率に景気、マクロ経済変動が及ぼす影響について分析を行った。2.データベースに含まれる大量の説明変数の中から、モデル推定精度の向上に有効な説明変数の特定を行う研究。銀行貸出債権には付随する大量の情報がある。これらの大量の情報の中から、デフォルト時損失率推定モデルを作成する際に用いる変数特定方法に関して理論的な研究を行った。

 

Syllabus