We propose a new specification test for assessing the validity of fuzzy regression discontinuity designs (FRD‐validity). We derive a new set of testable implications, characterized by a set of inequality restrictions on the joint distribution of observed outcomes and treatment status at the cut‐off. We show that this new characterization exploits all of the information in the data that is useful for detecting violations of FRD‐validity. Our approach differs from and complements existing approaches that test continuity of the distributions of running variables and baseline covariates at the cut‐off in that we focus on the distribution of the observed outcome and treatment status. We show that the proposed test has appealing statistical properties. It controls size in a large sample setting uniformly over a large class of data generating processes, is consistent against all fixed alternatives, and has non‐trivial power against some local alternatives. We apply our test to evaluate the validity of two FRD designs. The test does not reject FRD‐validity in the class size design studied by Angrist and Lavy (1999) but rejects it in the insurance subsidy design for poor households in Colombia studied by Miller, Pinto, and Vera‐Hernández (2013) for some outcome variables. Existing density continuity tests suggest the opposite in each of the two cases.

A new bandwidth selection method that uses different bandwidths for the local linear regression estimators on the left and the right of the cut-off point is proposed for the sharp regression discontinuity design estimator of the average treatment effect at the cut-off point. The asymptotic mean squared error of the estimator using the proposed bandwidth selection method is shown to be smaller than other bandwidth selection methods proposed in the literature. The approach that the bandwidth selection method is based on is also applied to an estimator that exploits the sharp regression kink design. Reliable confidence intervals compatible with both of the proposed bandwidth selection methods are also proposed as in the work of Calonico, Cattaneo, and Titiunik (2014a). An extensive simulation study shows that the proposed method's performances for the samples sizes 500 and 2000 closely match the theoretical predictions. Our simulation study also shows that the common practice of halving and doubling an optimal bandwidth for sensitivity check can be unreliable.

We propose a generalized version of the RESET test for linearity in regressions with I(1) processes against various nonlinear alternatives and no cointegration. The proposed test statistic for linearity is given by the Wald statistic and its limiting distribution under the null hypothesis is shown to be a chi(2) distribution with a "leads and lags" estimation technique. We show that the test is consistent against a class of nonlinear alternatives and no cointegration. Finite-sample simulations show that the empirical size is close to the nominal one and the test succeeds in detecting both nonlinearity and no cointegration.

A new bandwidth selection method for the fuzzy regression discontinuity estimator is proposed. The method chooses two bandwidths simultaneously, one for each side of the cut-off point by using a criterion based on the estimated asymptotic mean square error taking into account a second-order bias term. A simulation study demonstrates the usefulness of the proposed method. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Are all Japanese youth ready for the structural reforms proposed as a supply-side policy of Abenomics? To answer this question, we assess how well Japanese youth have coped with the labor market's long-term structural changes, induced primarily by deepening interdependence with emerging economies and rapid technological progress over the last three decades. We examine the role of educational upgrading on the labor-market outcomes of youth between the ages of 25 and 29, using six waves of micro data from the Employment Status Survey spanning from 1982 to 2007. The analysis demonstrates that the demand growth for skilled labor relative to unskilled labor has been met by the educational upgrading of youth through the expansion of tertiary education, including education in vocational schools. Youth left behind the trend of educational upgrading, however, have suffered significantly from decreasing employment opportunities and deteriorated working conditions. National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Roppongi 7-22-1, Minato-ku, Tokyo 106-8677, Japan; Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo, Hongo 7-3-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan; Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, Naka 2-1, Kunitachi-shi, Tokyo 186-8601, Japan. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

We consider a problem of policy evaluation based on semiparametric difference-in-differences approaches. The semiparametric approaches exploit partially linear models. We discuss the identification conditions of the policy effect and propose two estimators. One estimator is based on the kernel method and the other on the Spline method. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are developed. We also propose procedures for statistical inference based on the asymptotic properties and the bootstrap method. Then we apply the proposed approach to estimate the effect of energy conservation appeal to electricity demand after the earthquake in 2011

本年度は4月にシカゴ連銀でのRobert LaLonde教授記念会議へ参加し現在進行中のプログラム評価手法について議論に参加した。またHarvard大学David Wise教授主催のNBER会議に参加し、“Challenges in Controlling Medicare Spending: Treating Highly Complex Patients” by T. MaCurdy and J. Battacharyaへのコメントを行った。現在東京大学医学部康永教授等と共に日本のデータを用いて、関連研究を行っている。<BR>以上本年度実施した研究であるが、特別推進研究との重複を避けるため、本研究における、（１）個票データの質に関する分析、（２）実証分析手法の開発、（３）その実践としての実証分析という三方面は、より拡大したかたちで、特別推進における研究として実現していくこととする。<BR>具体的には（１）個票データの質に関する分析については日本におけるパネルデータの質の検証を行う。（２）実証分析手法の開発については本基盤研究で行ってきた政策評価手法の開発を引き続き行うと共に、より構造推定に即した実証分析手法の開発も行う。（３）その実践としての実証分析としては特別推進研究の課題である、多様な個人を前提とする政策評価型国民移転勘定を創成し、それを用いて、少子高齢化対策の評価に関する研究を行っていく。27年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。27年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない

In this research, we developed econometric methods for policy or program evaluation. Policy or program evaluation is to study, for example, the effect of unemployment benefit on unemployment duration. The problem considered in this research is the framework where implementation or eligibility of economic policies depends on a certain variable. For example, the eligibility of unemployment benefit typically depends on the duration of employment of the previous job. To estimate the policy effect in this framework, we proposed a novel estimation method. We also demonstrated that the proposed method outperforms the existing method. We applied the proposed method to investigate the effect of various economic policies

This study evaluates the impact of labor market policies on its outcomes. The impacts of work hour standard and minimum wages are examined. Regarding the work hour standard, analysis of the survey on time use and leisure activities reveals that the reduction of work hour standard from the late 1980s to the middle 1990s reduced hours worked and increased leisure hours. Regarding minimum wage, the increase in region minimum wage induced by the 2007 revision of minimum wage act reduced the employment rate of teenagers

We examine the effects of a government electricity conservation campaign on household electricity consumption in a non-experimental setting. Before the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, one-third of electricity was generated by nuclear power plants in Japan, but all the plants had shut down by 2013 for mandatory regular checkups. To meet severe supply constraints without increasing the price, the government ran a massive conservation campaign with explicit targets by electric company districts. Exploiting the differential timing of the pre-determined checkup cycle and the heterogeneous dependence on nuclear power generation in the pre-accident period by the electric company districts, we estimate the impact of the target on household electricity demand. We also estimate the price elasticity exploiting the price increase that occurred with a time lag. We show that increasing the conservation target by 1 percentage point reduced the consumption by about 0.4\%, whereas the price elasticity was around 0.3. Households with extra electricity usage complied more strongly with the conservation request while the responses were uniform across income groups.

本研究においては差分の差分法を中心とした政策評価の計量経済学の理論的開発とそれらを用いて実証分析を行うことである。政策が内生的に決定され、政策の効果を含む様々な説明変数が非線形的に結果変数に影響を与える状況におけるセミパラメトリックな政策評価の方法を提案した。キュービックスプラインを伴う高次元モデルにに基づく推定方法を提案し、提案された推定量の漸近的な性質の導出を行った。提案された方法を用いて節電要請が電力需要に与える影響の分析を行った。

本研究課題においてはファジー回帰不連続分析における仮定の妥当性を検証するための新しい検定方法を提案した。まず回帰不連続分析において平均政策効果を識別するための仮定より導かれる結果変数と政策変数の同時分布に関する不等号制約を導出した。その不等号制約は仮定の妥当性を検証するためにデータが持っている情報を最大限用いていることも示した。本アプローチは、操作変数の情報のみを用いる既存の検定とは異なり、結果変数と政策変数の情報も用いることに大きな違いがある。そして、提案された検定方法は帰無仮説の下でも対立仮説の下でも優れた統計的な性質を持っていることも示した。そして、本課題の検定方法を用いて、実際にファジー回帰不連続分析のフレームワークを用いて分析が行われた二つの事例を検証した。