本年度の研究目的は、本研究で扱うグローバル・イシューの現状把握とそれらの解決のためのアプローチを探るものであった。従来の方法論である現状把握から将来を予想する方法（フォーキャースティング：forecasting）や望ましい将来像を設定して現在の政策を選択していく方法（バックキャースティング：backcasting）を検討した。しかし、前者の方法ではこれまでに多くの問題点が指摘されている。例えば、冷戦の終焉について国際政治理論の主流であるリアリズムもリベラリズムも全く予想できなかった。予想できなかった直近の例としては、英国のEU脱退の国民投票の結果や米国のトランプ大統領の誕生も予測できないできごとであった。後者の方法に関しては、気候変動問題は バックキャースティングの方法との親和性は高いが、他の諸問題に関しては、さらなる検討が必要であることを確認した。こうした各々のアプローチを検討していくなかで、将来予見型ガバナンス（anticipatory governance）という概念が、本研究で扱う諸問題の解決策模索のためのアプローチに共通して採用できるのではないか、ということになった。将来予見型ガバナンスとは、将来予想される状況を複数予見（foresight）して、それらの予め想定された状況に柔軟に対応できるようにし（network governance）、採用された政策に対する反応をよりよいガバナンスに取り入れる（feedback for applied learning）ようにすることである。本研究の採択決定の時期が想定以上に遅く、研究分担者の中には初年度の研究計画を当初の予定どおり実施できない者もいたので、研究の進捗状況がやや遅れている研究分野も存在する。その中でも、本研究で扱うグローバル・イシューの現状把握が進捗しているものとして、英国のEU離脱後のEU統合に関する研究、EU安全保障・防衛協力のガバナンス研究、EUの連帯とリスクガバナンスなどに関しては、研究が進んでいる。EUと人間の安全保障やEUと日本の協力関係に関する研究の進捗状況も良い。また、人間の安全保障と災害、特に、福島第一原発事故の人間の安全保障の観点からの分析も行われている。さらに、気候変動問題の現状理解と日本の外交との関連での研究も進行中で、気候変動緩和策と関連の深いエネルギー政策に関する研究成果も上がっている。サイバーセクリティーについての現状把握は多岐にわたっていて、今後さらなる研究の積み重ねが大いに期待できる。海外の研究協力者とも互いの研究協力の方向性について、また、研究対象として関心のあるリサーチ・クエッションについても意見交換を行った。これらの諸問題の現状把握研究と並行して、共同研究の統合をはかるための理論的な枠組みの検討として、将来予見型ガバナンス（anticipatory governance）という概念が、本研究で扱う諸問題の解決策模索のためのアプローチに適応できるのではないか、ということになった。この概念は、新しい科学や技術の応用が社会に与える影響を予め評価しておくこと、あるいは、将来の大災害や政治経済上の大変化を弱いシグナルから予見して予め多くのシナリオを想定して将来の変化に備えることである。平成29年度の研究の主目的は、本研究で扱う各々のグローバル・イシューの解決策模索のために、どこまで将来予見型のガバナンス（anticipatory governance）の枠組みを適応できるかを、各共同研究者の研究テーマにそくして検討することである。その際、現在追加申請をしている研究分担者のこれまでの研究成果を参考にすることにする。同研究分担者候補は、気候変動緩和策としての大規模な地球工学の導入に関する社会的影響などを、将来予見型ガバナンスの観点から評価するという研究を推し進めていて、本研究グループへの参加を通して、より明確な形で他の研究分担者の研究テーマにanticipatory governanceの概念を適応できるのか、検討を進める上で重要な役割を担う。今後の研究推進のより具体的なロードマップとしては、今年の9月あるいは10月を目途に、研究分担者が扱う各テーマに関するanticipatory governanceの分析枠組みを適応した論文あるいはその概要を執筆することにしている。それを受け、次年度に関連する主な学会での報告や国際ワークショップ開催に向けて、より具体的な内容を決めて、さらに研究の推進を図っていく計画である。本年度は、初年度に計画していた海外での調査研究を行うとともに、本年度において当初から計画している調査研究を実施する。また、研究の進捗をすすめるために研究合宿をなどを実施して、研究分担者間の研究交流を図るとともに、最終年度に計画されている成果報告について検討する。さらに、新たに研究分担者を追加することによって、今年度で固まりつつある将来予見的ガバナンス（anticipatory governance）の理論的枠組みを研究分担者間で共有するとともに、各事例研究への応用について研究を深める

I made two research trips to Thailand, and conducted and recorded 7 interviews. I had a very productive meeting with the EU human rights representative, who gave me the contact details of many valuable possible interviewees. I found an excellent Thai co-researcher, who also has very good contacts. On my first trip I met the EU representative, and conducted two pilot interviews. After these pilot interviews, I changed and improved my interview questionnaire, which is now more relevant to the Thai case study. I made a preliminary analysis of the findings, which show a pattern, and suggest that the EU is successfully diffusing human rights norms in Thailand. I also extensively researched the norm diffusion literature. I have made several academic presentations based on these findings.Overall, I am 'progressing rather smoothly'. At first, I had to delay my trips to Thailand for a couple of months, because of the political situation there. However, I have since been able to make two trips, have done several very useful interviews, made good contacts, and been given the names of many other potential interviewees. I was able to conduct pilot interviews and refine my questionnaire. I already have substantial findings, and a pattern is beginning to emerge from the interviews, which suggests that the EU is doing a good job in Thailand, and is making an impact in the diffusion of human rights norms. I have presented preliminary findings, and also received extremely valuable feedback from experts on the EU and human rights, from Oxford University and Canterbury University, NZThe next step is to make two further visits to Bangkok, to conduct further interviews with local human rights defenders and experts. For the first of these trips, I will organize interviews with my remaining Thai contacts, in partnership with my research partner in Thailand. On the second trip, I will organize interviews with leading Western human rights experts. By the end of this process I will have interviewed more than 15 people in Thailand. This is a higher number than I thought possible. I will then analyze the results, and present the findings in research presentations. I hope to organize a workshop at the Universite Libre de Bruxelles, and at Waseda University. I will then consider whether I should continue a deeper analysis of the Thai case, or to turn my attention to Indonesia.I will use the amount carried over to make two further visits to Thailand for interviews. I will also organize a larger symposium, rather than a workshop, in either Tokyo or Brussels. I will invite extra researchers with the money that I could not spend last year. Also, it was necessary to conduct some interviews in Thai, so I hope to use some funds to pay for translation/transcription costs

本研究は、早稲田・オックスフォード・ベルリン・ブリュッセルのEU・ヨーロッパ統合研究者が展開する国際共同研究として、特に、(1)「国際アクターEU」をテーマにした共著を出版して、(2)「流動化するグローバル秩序における日本とEU」をテーマとした共著の出版計画を進め、(3)「ヨーロッパ統合と東アジア地域との比較研究」をテーマとした国際ワークショップを主催して、今後の国際共同研究へ向けた萌芽を見出すことができた。

This researchproject updates Buzan and Waever’s regional security complex theory (RSCT) and applies it to thecontemporary Indo-Pacific. I argue that the Indo-Pacific is not a region, but a‘macrosecuritized security constellation’ which contains four distinct regional security complexes;Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Pacific. Using Buzan andWaever’ssecurity sectors approach I argue that although the Northeast Asian RSC is aconflict formation, and Southeast Asia is a security regime, there are neverthelessimportant economic, political, environmental and social security sectorlinkages between the two RSCs. RSCT has great explanatory power in regarding theIndo-Pacific and the relations between these two regions. The research also haspractical implications; the term Indo-Pacific has become widely accepted in strategiccommunication and public diplomacy, but in practice there is great variation inthe degree to which Indo-Pacific states in the two quite different Northeasternand Southeastern RSCTs are prepared to securitize their relations with China.This means there is a risk of misperception and the adoption of inadequateforeign and security policy. Thereare three main research outcomes to report. Firstly,Professor Bacon, together with Professor Nick Smith, co-authored an articlepublished in The Pacific Review which explains the differences andsimilarities between the two security regions. This is a major research achievement,as this is a high-impact journal, and one of the leading IR journals in theworld. Secondly,Professor Bacon, together with Axel Julsrud, has had an article accepted forpublication in International Affairs, which draws on research materialfrom the project. Again, this is a major research achievement, as this is ahigh-impact journal, and one of the leading IR journals in the world.Third, togetherwith Professor Matthew Gray, I have also submitted a book proposal to Routledge’s Rethinking Asia and International Relations series. The proposal is currently under review, with a decisionexpected some time in April 2026. We have a manuscript ready for publication, with130,000 words already collected, with each of the chapters reviewed and revisedeach of the authors. We strongly expect to publish the manuscript as aRoutledge book by the end of 2026.ProfessorBacon also applied for two major external funding opportunities during theacademic year 2025-2026 as one of the conditions of receiving this funding. Specifically,he applied for a JSPS Kakenhi Kiban C, and a JSPS Bilateral Joint ResearchProject, in partnership with Chulalongkorn University, Thailand.

In late 2022, I published a co-edited book with Routledge, based on work I have done on this topic. From April 2022 until September 2022 I spentresearch time editing the manuscript. The book is titled: The Sustainable Development Goals: Diffusion and Contestation in Asia and Europe,Routledge, New York, 2023. I wrote the conclusion to the book, and contributed two co-authored book chapters. One of the chapters is on the'spiral model', the theory I am using for this JSPS project. The other is a case study on EU and ILO activity in Thailand, with regard to IUUfishing and forced labour. This publication is directly connected to this JSPS research project. I also published a co-authored article on norm diffusion in Journal of Common Market Studies, a high-impact journal on EU studies. 

This research project analyzes the international diffusion of human rights norms and Sustainable Development Goals relating to forced labour and human trafficking in the fisheries industry. In particular, I study the European Union and the International Labour Organization, who are working together in several Southeast Asian countries, including Thailand. I argue that the partnership between these organizations has been highly successful, drawing on the EU's economic leverage, and the ILO's capacity-building expertise. For my research methodology, I use a norm diffusion framework I developed using my previous JSPS grant. I recently published a high-impact article using this research framework in a leading IR journal, JCMS, in which I analyzed the EU’s ‘normative power’: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jcms.13177I was able to travel to Thailand using project research money to continue with my network-building and academic interviews. I was also able to subsidize research on the EU’s recognition as a normative power in the Japanese media, through analysis of Japanese newspapers and government social media accounts. Finally, in early 2023 my latest Routledge co-edited research monograph was published, which contains my latest findings from this project research:https://www.routledge.com/The-Sustainable-Development-Goals-Diffusion-and-Contestation-in-Asia-and/Bacon-Chiba-Ponjaert/p/book/9781032072180As well as co-editing the book, I also wrote three co-authored chapters.

This research projectanalyzes the international diffusion of human rights norms and SustainableDevelopment Goals relating to forced labour and human trafficking in thefisheries industry. In particular, I study the European Union and theInternational Labour Organization, who are working together in severalSoutheast Asian countries, including Thailand. I argue that the partnershipbetween these organizations has been highly successful, drawing on the EU'seconomic leverage, and the ILO's capacity-building expertise. For my researchmethodology, I use a norm diffusion framework I developed using my previousJSPS grant. I recently published a high-impact article using this research frameworkin a leading IR journal, JCMS, in which I analyzed the EU’s ‘normative power’: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jcms.13177 I was able to travel to Thailand using project research money to continue with mynetwork-building and academic interviews. I was also able to subsidize researchon the EU’s recognition as a normative power in the Japanese media, throughanalysis of Japanese newspapers and government social media accounts. Finally,in early 2023 my latest Routledge co-edited research monograph was published,which contains my latest findings from this project research:https://www.routledge.com/The-Sustainable-Development-Goals-Diffusion-and-Contestation-in-Asia-and/Bacon-Chiba-Ponjaert/p/book/9781032072180As well asco-editing the book, I also wrote three co-authored chapters.