NAKAMURA, Shinichiro

写真a

Affiliation

Faculty of Political Science and Economics, School of Political Science and Economics

Job title

Professor

Homepage URL

http://www.f.waseda.jp/nakashin/index.html

Concurrent Post 【 display / non-display

  • Faculty of Political Science and Economics   Graduate School of Economics

  • Faculty of Political Science and Economics   Graduate School of Political Science

  • Faculty of Science and Engineering   Graduate School of Environment and Energy Engineering

Research Institute 【 display / non-display

  • 1989
    -
     

    現代政治経済研究所   兼任研究員

Education 【 display / non-display

  •  
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    1983

    University of Bonn   Graduate School, Department of Economics   Economic theory  

  •  
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    1974

    Keio University   Faculty of Economics  

Degree 【 display / non-display

  • University of Bonn (Germany)   Dr. rer. pol.

  • ボン大学 (ドイツ)   Dr. rer. pol.

Research Experience 【 display / non-display

  • 2005
    -
    2012

    Nagoya university, Guest professor

  • 1988
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    1990

    University of Toronto, Visiting associate professor

  • 1979
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    1985

    University of Bonn, research associate

Professional Memberships 【 display / non-display

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    Institute of Life Cycle Assessment, Japan

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    The Iron and Steel Institute of Japan

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    International Society for Industrial Ecology

 

Research Areas 【 display / non-display

  • Economic statistics

  • Environmental impact assessment

Research Interests 【 display / non-display

  • LCA, MFA,Econometrics,Economics of Waste Management, Industrial Ecology, Input-output analysis

Papers 【 display / non-display

  • Tracing the Consumption Origins of Wastewater and Sludge for a Chinese City Based on Waste Input-Output Analysis

    Lishan Xiao, Chen Lin, Shinichiro Nakamura

    Environmental Science and Technology   54 ( 19 ) 12560 - 12567  2020.10  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Last author

     View Summary

    Water scarcity and pollution are grand challenges to sustainability. We developed a high-resolution wastewater input-output model for a Chinese city, Xiamen, incorporating detailed information on the treatment and quality of wastewater and sludge. We estimated consumption-based wastewater and sludge footprints of products (W2F and SF, respectively). Significant differences were found between the amounts of direct discharge (scope 1) and W2F (scopes 1-3), indicating the need to consider W2F in making plans for future wastewater management strategies. Reflecting its high organic content, food-related consumption was found to be a significant contributor to sludge generation. Scenario analyses were conducted to assess the effects of a shift from the traditional Chinese diet to the European diet and the anticipated industrial growth. Attempts were also made to establish links between the direct wastewater discharge of households and the final consumption of food items through human excretion, or the postconsumption footprints. It was found that the postconsumption W2F outweighed the preconsumption W2F for five out of nine food items, while the postconsumption SF outweighed the preconsumption SF in all cases except one. This research provides a scientific basis to identify the economy-wide fate of wastewater and sludge and to frame a policy for sustainable wastewater and sludge management.

    DOI PubMed

  • Tracking the Product Origins of Waste for Treatment Using the WIO Data Developed by the Japanese Ministry of the Environment

    Shinichiro Nakamura

    Environmental Science and Technology    2020  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Lead author

     View Summary

    Almost any production and consumption activity generates waste directly or indirectly over its supply chain. This paper is concerned with identifying the product origins of waste or waste footprint of products. It uses the waste input-output (WIO) data recently developed and published by the Japanese Ministry of the Environment (MOE), which is, to date, one of the publicly available WIO data with the highest resolution in products and waste. Results show that footprint calculation can identify factors behind the waste flows that otherwise would not be recognizable. The amount of waste for landfill is smaller than that for incineration only because around 80% of potential waste for landfill, mostly construction waste, is absorbed by recycling, attributed to public capital formation. Without this massive demand for recycling, the amount of waste sent to landfill would have been five to six times larger than the actual one, exceeding incineration. Footprint analysis of plastic waste reveals that targeting only postconsumer plastics waste is misleading, because most plastics waste has its origins in production. Service industries are found to be a major contributor to waste incineration and landfill in terms of footprint, whereas their contribution is minor in direct discharge.

    DOI PubMed

  • Approaches to solving China’s marine plastic pollution and CO<inf>2</inf> emission problems

    Chen Lin, Shinichiro Nakamura

    Economic Systems Research   31 ( 2 ) 143 - 157  2019.04  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Last author

     View Summary

    Global contamination of the oceans by waste plastics is of increasing concern. Besides being the largest emitter of CO in the world, China is suspected of being the largest contributor to marine plastic waste pollution. Responsible for the latter is the still inadequate management of waste in China, a significant improvement of which is necessary for addressing the issue of marine plastic pollution. Since plastics are hydrocarbons, submitting them to appropriate waste treatment/recycling technologies could contribute to mitigating the emission of CO , indicating the possibility of addressing the two environmental issues simultaneously. Based on the combined use of waste input–output and linear programming, we investigated options for mitigating CO emissions under consideration of alternative waste treatment/recycling processes applied to waste plastics of China. It was found that of the nine processes considered, four could result in a net reduction in the emission: a win-win situation. 2 2 2

    DOI

  • Toward an integrated model of the circular economy: Dynamic waste input–output

    Shinichiro Nakamura, Yasushi Kondo

    Resources, Conservation and Recycling   139   326 - 332  2018.12  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    Since its development at the end of the previous century, the waste input–output (WIO) model has been extended to wide areas of industrial ecology including material flow analysis (MFA), life-cycle costing (LCC), regional analysis, and linear programming (LP)-based technology selection. To our knowledge, the dynamics of waste generation and recycling is an area of possible conceptual extension that remains least explored. Building upon our recent work on dynamic MFA, in this work, we develop a dynamic WIO (dWIO) model that fully considers the issue of quality in recycling that involves mixing, dissipation, and contamination.

    DOI

  • Optimal Recycling of Steel Scrap and Alloying Elements: Input-Output based Linear Programming Method with Its Application to End-of-Life Vehicles in Japan

    Hajime Ohno, Kazuyo Matsubae, Kenichi Nakajima, Yasushi Kondo, Shinichiro Nakamura, Yasuhiro Fukushima, Tetsuya Nagasaka

    ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY   51 ( 22 ) 13086 - 13094  2017.11  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    Importance of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) as an urban mine is expected to grow, as more people in developing countries are experiencing increased standards of living, while the automobiles are increasingly made using high-quality materials to meet stricter environmental and safety requirements. While most materials in ELVs, particularly steel, have been recycled at high rates, quality issues have not been adequately addressed due to the complex use of automobile materials, leading to considerable losses of valuable alloying elements. This study highlights the maximal potential of quality-oriented recycling of ELV steel, by exploring the utilization methods of scrap, sorted by parts, to produce electric-arc-furnace-based crude alloy steel with minimal losses of alloying elements. Using linear programming on the case of Japanese economy in 2005, we found that adoption of parts-based scrap sorting could result in the recovery of around 94-98% of the alloying elements occurring in parts scrap (manganese, chromium, nickel, and molybdenum), which may replace 10% of the virgin sources in electric arc furnace-based crude alloy steel production.

    DOI

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Books and Other Publications 【 display / non-display

  • Waste Input-Output Analysis: Concepts and Application to Industrial Ecology

    Shinichiro Nakamura, Yasushi Kondo

    Spinger  2009.02 ISBN: 9781402099014

  • ライフサイクル産業連関分析

    中村愼一郎他

    早稲田大学出版部  2007.10

  • 廃棄物経済学をめざして

    中村愼一郎

    早稲田大学出版部  2002

  • Recycling of electrical home appliances : its impacts on the economy and environment

    Electronics Goes Green 2000+, Proceedings  2000

  • Adjustments of Employment and Working Hours under Long-term Employment

    The Frontier of Research in Japanese Economy, Yuhikaku  1993

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Misc 【 display / non-display

  • IO-MFA and Thermodynamic Approach for Metal Recycling

    Kenichi Nakajima, Kazuyo Matsubae, Yasushi Kondo, Shinichiro Nakamura, Tetsuya Nagasaka

    REWAS 2013 Enabling Materials Resource Sustainability     412 - 413  2013.02

    DOI

  • Development of Efficient Recycling System for Steel Alloying Elements in End of Life Vehicles

    Hajime Ohno, Kazuyo Matsubae, Kenichi Nakajima, Shinichiro Nakamura, Testsuya Nagasaka

    REWAS 2013 Enabling Materials Resource Sustainability     414 - 422  2013.02

     View Summary

    © 2013 The Minerals, Metals &amp; Materials Society. All rights reserved. Special steels, which have been imparted various properties by the addition of alloying elements, have become increasingly important as materials for human life in recent years. As the largest industrial consumer of special steel materials, the motor vehicle industry requires large volumes of various types of special steel for vehicle production. Scrap containing base metals and alloying elements is generated from end-of-life vehicles (ELVs). In current scrap treatment processes, alloying elements in steel materials are rarely considered, instead becoming impurities in steel recycling processes at electric arc furnaces (EAF) and losing their worth. In this study, with the aim of avoiding loss of useful steel alloying elements, we discuss effective treatment of ELVs for efficient recycling and use of steel alloying elements using waste input-output material flow analysis (WIO-MFA).

    DOI

  • Synthesis of material flow analysis and input–output analysis

    Shinichiro Nakamura

    Thermodynamics and the Destruction of Resources   9780521884556   334 - 362  2011.01  [Refereed]

     View Summary

    Introduction For a model of a production process to be valid in the real world, it has to take proper account of the principles of thermodynamics. Production models in economics are no exception. The conservation of mass requires that proper attention be paid to the mass balance between inputs and outputs entering and leaving a given production process. An increase of entropy implies the generation of process waste in the production phase and the reduction in the purity of materials in the use and end-of-life (EoL) phases. Because process waste is generated in the production phase, it should be classified as an output if the mass balance between inputs and outputs is to be established. The reduction in the purity of materials in the use phase is relevant for materials made of polymers, such as paper, textile, and plastics, whose chemical bindings loosen over time. On the other hand, for metals such as iron, copper, or aluminum, such a decline in quality in the use phase will not occur [except for possible corrosions (oxidization)] because these metals are elements. In fact, it is not the use phase but the EoL phase in which a serious reduction in the quality of metal materials can occur because of the mixing-up of diverse metal elements or the “contamination” of pure elements with other elements in minor quantities (tramp elements).

    DOI

  • Rare-metal flow in steel cycle

    Kazuyo Matsubae-Yokoyama, Kenichi Nakajima, Shinichiro Nakamura, Tetsuya Nagasaka

    Tetsu-To-Hagane/Journal of the Iron and Steel Institute of Japan   95   759 - 765  2009.12  [Refereed]

    Rapid communication, short report, research note, etc. (scientific journal)  

  • Analyzing Polyvinyl Chloride in Japan With the Waste Input-Output Material Flow Analysis Model

    Shinichiro Nakamura, Kenichi Nakajima, Yoshie Yoshizawa, Kazuyo Matsubae-Yokoyama, Tetsuya Nagasaka

    JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY   13 ( 5 ) 706 - 717  2009.10  [Refereed]

    Authorship:Lead author

    Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal)  

     View Summary

    P&gt;Effective life cycle management of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) calls for the separation of end-of-life PVC products at the time of collection not only from other wastes but among different PVC types as well. Information about the flow of PVC products in the economy is important for this purpose. Within the framework of the Japanese input-output (IO) table for the year 2000, with around 400 industry sectors, the flow of PVC is captured in terms of six PVC-embodying products and in terms of three PVC types, (1) flexible PVC (soft PVC), (2) rigid PVC (hard PVC), and (3) others. The degree of resolution; the consideration of different PVC types, which are seldom performed in the material flow analysis (MFA) literature; and the use of waste input-output material flow analysis (WIO-MFA) represent distinguishing features of our study. The use of WIO-MFA methodology enables one to convert a monetary input-output table into a physical interindustry flow table involving an arbitrary number of materials under full consideration of the mass balance. The results indicate that 40% of the PVC produced in Japan is exported (as resins and as products such as passenger motor cars), and the rest is accumulated mostly as capital stock. The largest share of accumulation goes to public construction in the form of plates, pipes, and bars, which are mostly hard-PVC products.

    DOI

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Awards 【 display / non-display

  • Asada Medal, Iron and Steel Institute of Japan

    2012.12  

  • President Award, Steel Foundation for Environmental Protection Technology

    2012.09  

  • Contribution Award, Institute of Life Cycle Assessment, Japan

    2012.03  

  • Hondal Prize on the Development of Recycling Techcnlology

    2006.01  

  • Article prize, Japan Society of Waste Management Experts

    2001  

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Research Projects 【 display / non-display

  • Development of models for material stock and flow analysis toward advanced recycling of scarce alloying elements

    Project Year :

    2019.04
    -
    2022.03
     

  • Material/substance flow analysis of multiple substances for efficient recycling of steel scrap and alloying elements

    Project Year :

    2015.04
    -
    2018.03
     

     View Summary

    While steel scrap is characterized by a high rate of recycling, alloying elements in steel are not necessarily utilized effectively. In order to promote effective utilization of alloying elements, we developed a new mathematical model of material/substance flow analysis that considers the simultaneous presence of multiple materials and multiple substances. Results of its application under alternative scenarios show the substantial potential of effectively utilizing alloying elements and the importance of paying due attention to qualitative aspects of recycling, which was made possible by an indicator based on the amount of energy saved by effective utilization of alloying elements

  • Waste Input-Output Analysis of the Dynamic Path of the Use and Dissipation of Metal Resources and the Associated GHG Emissions

    Project Year :

    2010.04
    -
    2013.03
     

     View Summary

    Recycling is vital for sustainable management of metal resources. While closed-loop recycling is desirable, open loop recycling is more common due to the mixing of different metal-species in the end of life process. This is associated with losses in quality, and additional environmental burdens such as GHG emissions, as well. A tool was developed that makes possible to estimate the environmental burdens associated with these quality losses. Application to ferrous materials used in passenger cars showed the significance of improvement in end-of-life separation technologies in mitigating the nation-wide GHG emissions. Furthermore, a mathematical model was developed that is capable of tracing the fate of materials over time across products under explicit consideration of products lives, recovery, refining, and use

  • 循環型社会に向けた総合的技術開発

    ベンチャー研究開発拠点整備事業(2005年からは社会連携に種別名称変更)

    Project Year :

    2001
    -
    2005
     

  • サステナビリティ指標としての物質・材料フロー

    Project Year :

    2003
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Specific Research 【 display / non-display

  • 合金元素動的MFAモデルの開発

    2015  

     View Summary

    これまで,動的MFA に資するモデルMaTrace (Nakamura et. al., Environmental Science &amp; Technology, 2014, 48 (13), pp 7207-7214) を開発したが,それはいくつかの弱くない制約条件を受けている。その一つが,使用済み製品から発生するスクラップに対し,常にそれを丁度吸収するだけの需要が存在する仮定である。これは,多くの動的MFA研究において採用されているが,日本が鉄スクラップの輸出国であるといった現実を分析するには適切ではない。この問題に対処するため,MaTraceを廃棄物産業連関(WIO, Nakamura and Kondo, Journal of Industrial Ecology Vol. 6, No.1, pp.39-64, 2002.)の枠組みに入れ,最終需要からのend of life products をWeibull 分布で記述し,製品マテリアル組成をスクラップに変換する転換行列を介すことで製品からスクラップへのマテリアルフローを表現することができた。

  • 廃棄物地域産業連関最適化モデルの開発

    2002   栗山 浩一

     View Summary

    これまでに筆者らは,伝統的な産業連関表・モデルを廃棄物管理諸策の分析に適用可能なように拡張した廃棄物産業連関表・モデルを開発してきた。 また,シナリオ分析の方法により,環境・経済への影響評価についての 定量分析 (LCA) を行ってきた。この分析モデルを最適化問題のかたちへと拡張し,「最適な」廃棄物管理策探索の枠組みを提供することを主目的とする。 固定投入・排出係数を前提とすると,これまでの廃棄物産業連関分析モデルは線形方程式系として表現される。 解の一意性確保のためには,生産物 (変数) と生産技術 (係数行列の列) とが 一対一に対応しなければならない。 したがって,廃棄物処理・再資源化等の代替的技術の導入は 別の係数行列として表現され,新たに方程式系を解く必要が生じる.モデルを線型方程式系から線形計画問題へと拡張することで, この煩雑さを解消し,シナリオ選択における恣意性を排除することが出来る。 加えて,政策目標に即した目的関数 (例えば,最終処分場消費最小化) を設定することで,「最適な」廃棄物管理計画の策定が可能となる。最適な」廃棄物管理計画探索の枠組みを提供するだけでなく, 既存モデルでは困難であったシナリオ (温暖化ガス排出量削減目標など) が 自然なかたちで容易に導入可能となった。応用事例として,筆者らが開発した廃棄物産業連関表データを用い,厨芥のメタンガス化発電(残渣は堆肥利用),廃プラスチックの高炉還元利用,および焼却の広域化を選択しとし,目的関数としてCO2および最終処分場消費量を設定した分析を行った。埋立容量は最大で25%削減可能であり,その場合,CO2 も0.9% 削減される。CO2は最大で 1.9% 削減できるが,最終処分場消費削減を優先すると 0.9%しか削減されない。その一方で,CO2は最大で 1.9%削減できるが,その場合,埋立容量は7%以上増加してしまう。埋立容量削減を優先しても CO2排出が基準値より増加することはない。しかし,逆に CO2排出削減を優先すると埋立容量が増加してしまう,という意味で相反関係(トレードオフ)の存在が見いだされた。

  • 廃棄物循環分析用IO表の推定とゼロエミッション化の分析

    2000  

     View Summary

     財の生産と消費は不可避的に廃棄物を発生させる。静脈部門で適正処理・処分を経た廃棄物は、最終的に「環境負荷因子」として環境に放出される。静脈部門はその活動のために動脈部門からの財投入を必要とするが、一方で、それ自身廃棄物を発生させる。又、廃棄物再資源化は静脈から動脈への財供給である。動脈部門と静脈部門との間の財と廃棄物の循環を巡る、投入・産出・排出・処理・処分の相互依存関係を数量的に把握する分析装置として「廃棄物産業連関勘定及びモデル」を開発した。廃棄物産業連関の概念を既存研究との関連も含めて明確にし、理論的展開方向をで示した。全国表の推定作業を通じて各種統計資料からの廃棄物産業連関表の推定方法のマニュアル化を行い、Excelをインターフェースとして用いる廃棄物産業連関モデルのMATLABシステムを開発している。平成7年度の我が国公表産業連関表等を用いて、60産業部門、24種類の廃棄物、及び破砕・焼却から溶融・埋立までの廃棄物処理・処分部門からなる全国規模の廃棄物産業連関表モデルを推定した。応用として、広域化による集中処理・ごみ発電、廃プラスチックの高炉還元利用等が、産業生産活動・最終処分量・二酸化炭素排出量に及ぼす効果を評価検討した持続的経済社会の実現を目指す廃棄物管理政策にあっては、動脈と静脈の連関を考慮した全体的な環境負荷軽減を計ることが必要である。廃棄物産業連関は、中村者がこの目的に資するために独自に開発した物で、廃棄物発生のみならず廃棄物変換過程としての廃棄物処理と再資源化・処理に伴う動脈との連関を明示的に扱っている点、及び廃棄物処理に関して工学的モデルを入れ子の形で用いている点において、類似研究であるレオンチェフの公害除去産業連関モデル(及びその発展型)やSNAに基づく環境・経済統合勘定NAMEAと比較して大きな特色がある。

  • 廃棄物循環再利用多部門線形モデルにおける資源散逸条件の理論的実証的分析

    1998  

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     理論的分析:①再資源化を含む生産モデルにおいて重要な資源散逸条件(鷲田豊明・Georgescu-Roegen)を線形多部門モデルについて導出した。②複数の廃棄物及び廃棄物処理過程と再資源化過程を整合的に記述する産業連関形式の廃棄物循環勘定体系を開発した。③この勘定体系に依拠した分析用線形モデルを導出した。①では鷲田豊明の結果を拡張し、②ではオランダ統計局が進めている NAMEA の簡略形と見なされる勘定体系を得た、③では、従来、不等式を含む線形計画法として解かざるを得なかった問題を、廃棄物適正処理情報から得られる変換係数を用いて等式体系として解けることを示した。 実証的分析:①全国一の一般廃棄物の再資源化率を誇る北海道のF市について聞き取り・視察を行い、同市についての廃棄物循環勘定を作成し、拡張産業連関モデルを推定し、堆肥化とRDF化を中心とする同市の廃棄物処理政策を埋立処分場への負荷と化石燃料消費の観点から評価した。F市廃棄物政策の際だった特徴は可燃ごみの再資源化にあるので、分析対象を可燃ごみに限定した。1996年の排出割合をコントロールとし、排出割合について以下の三シナリオを想定した1 [シナリオ 1: 再資源化無し] 全ての可燃ごみは焼却される2 [シナリオ 2: RDFのみ] RDFの割合はコントロールと同じだが、それ以外は全て焼却される3 [シナリオ 3: 有機肥料のみ]有機肥料のの割合はコントロールと同じだが、それ以外は全て焼却される再資源化を全く行わず[シナリオ1] "全量単純焼却 → 焼却灰埋立" とすると、単純焼却量は 132% 増加し埋立処分量も26%増加する。生ゴミを単純焼却しRDFのみ生産する[シナリオ2]場合、単純焼却量は89%増加し埋立は28%増加する。これに対してRDFごみを単純焼却し有機肥料のみ生産する[シナリオ3]場合には、焼却量が43%増加するのに対して、埋立量は微減する(RDF を生産しない方が埋立が微減するのは、RDF生産による他部門への生産誘発を通じる埋立誘発が微減するためと考えられるが、僅かな値なので無視する)。すなわち、再資源化を一切行わないと焼却量は約2.3倍に増えるが、その約7割は生ごみの再資源化を行わないために生じる。生ごみからの有機肥料生産は、埋立処分の減量対策として極めて有効に機能しているのである。 次に、RDFについてのエネルギー的な有効性を検討する。エネルギー投入の尺度として、各シナリオの下で誘発される石油・石炭製品と電力の生産額合計を用いた。F市の焼却炉では助燃が行われていないので、投入ベクトルにおけるエネルギー投入が焼却量に比例するとは考えにくい。従って、エネルギー必要量から焼却量の増加に比例する部分を除いた方が適当であると考えられるので、表の数値は焼却に関する部分を除いている。エネルギー投入は再資源化を全く行わない[シナリオ1]と0.006%と僅かではあるが減少する。しかし、RDFに限定すると[シナリオ2]エネルギー投入は0.07%減少する事から、RDF事業が少なくともエネルギー的に有効であることがわかる。この意味で、F市のRDF化事業は廃棄物処理事業ではなくて生産事業である。この結果は、工学的な見地から廃棄物処理関連部門に限定してRDFのエネルギー分析を行った金贏載、松藤敏彦、田中信寿(1995)の結果と整合的である。

  • 廃棄物処理と再利用の産業連関分析

    1997  

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    1 従来の産業連関表に、廃棄物発生・処理・循環再利用を加えて拡張するための理論的検討を行った。特に、廃棄物ストックを所与としたときに、その循環再利用と廃棄に関わる環境負荷を求めるための線形模型を作成し、オランダNAMEAデータによってその挙動を検討した。2 実証モデル作成の準備として、自治体収集ゴミの再資源化率が6割近いという北海道富良野市の現地視察を行った。収集した資料を基に、同市についての廃棄物発生・循環再利用・廃棄処分の流れを記述する廃棄物勘定を、前出拡張産業連関模型の応用する形で作成する事を試みた。3 廃棄物発生・循環再利用を含む生産模型においては、Georgescu-Roegen・鷲田豊明等の指摘した「資源散逸条件」を適切に考慮する事が重要である。特に、鷲田が線形模型について導出した条件を、廃棄物を含有資源量ではなくて総量で計測した場合について導出し、鷲田模型との理論的関連を明確にした。研究成果の発表An Interindustry Approach to Analyzing Economic and Environmental Effects of the Recycling of Waste, Ecological Economics, Elsevier,受理済み

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